Rangers series preview: Bobby heads home
The Royals travel deep in the heart of Texas.
The Royals travel deep in the heart of Texas this week to visit the Rangers. For Bobby Witt Jr., it is a homecoming as he plays the team his dad spent 11 years pitching for. The younger Bobby came back to Texas last year for the All-Star Game, putting on a show in the Home Run Derby. But in nine career games at Globe Life Field, he has hit just .189.
Texas has been fairly streaky this year - they had a six-game winning streak in May, then lost six games in a row the next week. The Rangers have won seven of their last eight games, although those games came against the Nationals, Twins, and White Sox. They are 23-13 at home this year.
Kansas City Royals (34-38) vs. Texas Rangers (36-36) at Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Royals: 3.29 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.68 runs allowed/game (6th)
Rangers: 3,68 runs scored/game (26th), 3.31 runs allowed/game (1st)
The Rangers are hitting just .228/.298/.346 at Globe Life Field, and their 82 wRC+ is the fifth-worst in baseball at home. The offense got off to a very slow start, but they have come around lately, with the team hitting .258/.335/.436 in the month of June, with two 16-run outbursts last week.
The Rangers have the sixth-lowest walk rate in baseball. They have the highest fly-ball rate and the third-highest infield fly rate. Josh Smith is hitting .341/.408/.560 at home this year. Evan Carter is hitting .387/.457/.774 with three home runs in 11 games since returning from the injury list. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager each pull the ball 52 percent of the time, among the highest in baseball.
Adolis Garcia has a 53 percent flyball rate, eighth-highest in baseball. He has a reverse split and is hitting just .189/.204/.264 against lefties. Former Missouri State slugger Jake Burger has the tenth-highest soft-hit rate in baseball and the fourth-lowest walk rate. Josh Jung is hitting just .167/.225/.197 with a 30 percent strikeout rate in his last 17 games.
The Rangers are second in baseball in Defensive Runs Saved with Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford among the league leaders in outfielders. Jonah Heim is a former Gold Glove winner, but led the league in most stolen bases allowed last year and has thrown out just 20 percent of basestealers this year. The Rangers are an average baserunning team, but only three teams have fewer outs on the bases.
Pitching has been a strength for the Rangers, and they lead the league in ERA, something they haven’t done since 1983. Texas has not yet announced starters for Wednesday or Thursday as they attempt to juggle a rotation that has lost Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Cody Bradford to injury. Rookie Jack Leiter - son of former big league pitcher Al Leiter - has gone at least six innings just twice in eleven starts. He lasted just four innings in a loss to the Twins last week, giving up four runs and four walks. He is one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball with a 97 mph fastball that opponents are hitting just .141 against.
Patrick Corbin had an ERA of 5.71 over the four seasons with the Nationals prior to this, but has rebounded in Texas at age 35. He has not given up more than three runs in a start this year. Corbin relies mostly on his slider, sinker, and cutter, and generates a 41.6 percent groundball rate. He allows a 48 percent pull rate, sixth-highest in baseball. Bobby Witt Jr. is 4-for-6 against Corbin in his career with a double and a home run and Mark Canha is a career .448 hitter against him in 29 at-bats.
Way back when, Jacob deGrom lost Game 2 of the World Series against the Royals back in 2015. When healthy, he is among the best pitchers in baseball. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since April 11. His 5.4 walk rate is 14th lowest in baseball. Righties are hitting just .197/.246/.227 against him. deGrom has a 97 mph fastball and a slider with a 37 percent whiff rate.
The Rangers have a 3.40 ERA from their bullpen, seventh-best in baseball with the fifth-lowest walk rate. Luke Jackson has converted nine of eleven save opportunities, but has been splitting closing duties with left-hander Robert Garcia, a former Royals farmhand. Jackson had a rough start, but has a 1.50 ERA since the start of May, although with a high walk rate. Meanwhile, Garcia has three blown saves in the last month.
Chris Martin has the seventh-lowest walk rate among relievers. Jacob Webb has a 50 percent flyball rate. Lefties are hitting just 4-for-35 (.114) against Jacob Latz. Shawn Armstrong hasn’t given up a run in his last ten outings, with 14 strikeouts in 11 1⁄3 innings over that time.
The Royals dropped five of six to the Rangers last year, scoring just two runs in a Texas sweep at Globe Life Park at this time last year. The Royals are slumping and the Rangers are playing well, but momentum is only a thing until it isn’t. The Royals will need to stop the bleeding soon before they bury themselves in the standings.