Nine numbers to explain the Royals’ offensive woes

The bats are not working.

The Royals have been woeful offensively this year, averaging just 3.29 runs per game, worse than every other team except the Pirates. They have already been shut out eight times this year - matching their total for all of last season.

But why are they so bad? Here are nine numbers that may explain a bit why they are so poor at putting runs on the board.

6.3 percent

The Royals never walk. Ever. It seems ingrained in the culture of this franchise. The Royals are once again dead last in walk rate at 6.3 percent. The organization has not finished in the top half of the American League in walks since 1989. That just means fewer baserunners and fewer run opportunities.

12.3 percent

That’s the percentage of Royals baserunners that have scored this year, third-worst in baseball. The league average is 13.9 percent. The Royals have actually been pretty good at productive out percentage - they’re fifth-best in baseball. They’re pretty successful at getting bunts down and they do a good job avoiding double plays. They’re actually the third-best team at scoring a runner from third with less than two outs.

But they are terrible overall at getting runners home. Clutch hitting tends to be fluky, or a larger reflection of overall ineptitude, but the Royals have been particularly bad at it this year. They’re hitting just .224/.281/.314 with runners in scoring position, an OPS of .595, which is the worst in baseball.

13

The Royals have hit just 13 home runs at home, by far the fewest in baseball. The Marlins have hit 21 home runs at home - they’re 29th in baseball. Shohei Ohtani has hit 13 home runs by himself at home this year.

Sure, Kauffman Stadium is a tough place to hit home runs, but Royals opponents haven’t been quite that power-starved. Royals pitchers have given up 36 home runs at home compared to 37 on the road, nearly a 50/50 split. Meanwhile, Royals hitters have hit just 28 percent of their total home runs at home. Home cooking isn’t so sweet for them.

41.3 percent

The Royals hit flyballs 41.3 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in baseball. They have a 12.8 percent pop-up rate, the highest in baseball. The Royals are also hitting .139 on fly balls, the lowest in the league (league average is .198). They’re hitting .277 on ground balls, the highest in the league (league average is .249). Yet they have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in baseball at 39.4 percent. Teams are preaching launch angle, but the Royals don’t have the power to do any damage.

29 percent

This is the Royals’ hard-hit rate on flyballs, the lowest in baseball. The Dodgers lead the league with 44 percent. It is not an accident they have hit so few home runs in Kauffman Stadium (and don’t blame the parking lots!)

48.5 percent

Royals hitters like to swing the bat, swinging 48.5 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in baseball. When they swing they make a fair amount of contact - they are second in baseball in contact rate with the second-lowest strikeout rate. But pitchers are throwing fewer pitches in the zone than they used to, and yet the Royals continue to swing away, which leads us to.....

30.2 percent

That’s how often Royals hitters “chase” pitches, the second-worst mark in baseball. Hitting coach Alec Zumwalt’s hitting philosophy has been described as “identify good pitches and do damage to them.” Well, Royals hitters are not identifying good pitches. That’s a problem.

64.1 percent

That’s the rate of first-pitch strikes Royals hitters get from opponents, third-highest in baseball. Pitchers are attacking them, mostly because they don’t have to worry about them doing damage. The Royals swing at just 28.6 percent of first pitch strikes, the lowest rate in baseball. So, despite being one of the most aggressive teams swinging the bat, they are the most passive swinging onthe first pitch. Where’s Alcides Escobar to ambush a team when you need him?

But even when Royals hitters do swing and put it in play, they hit .313 on the first pitch. That seems high but it is the seventh-lowest mark in baseball (the league as a whole hits .340 when they put the first pitch in play). So Royals hitters are not doing much damage on the first pitch.

24

The Royals have been caught stealing 24 times this year, most in baseball. Studies show that 75 percent is a good success rate to make stealing worth the risk - the Royals have a 70 percent success rate, third-worst in baseball. The number 24 also represents the number of outs the Royals have made on the bases when the ball is put in play, tied for sixth-most in baseball. The Royals produce so few baserunners, it hurts even more when they fritter those chances away with bad baserunning.