Analyzing FanGraphs’ Top Guardians Prospects List

Let’s see what a national prospect writer thinks

FanGraphs released their top Guardians’ prospects list with lots of interesting insights on some well-known Guardians’ minor leaguers. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights.

First of all, I want to recommend a FanGraphs’ subscription. If you find yourself running out of articles each month or want to use some cool extra tools, I find it well-worth the investment and it feels good to support their excellent writing team. Now, I know Erik Longenhagen has his detractors, but, to be honest, I just read national prospect writers to focus on the good things they say and take some of their criticisms as places to watch to see if players improve. There are guys I like more than Longenhagen and his doubts about them don’t shake my belief in them; there are guys I like less than he does, and his belief in them doesn’t convince me I’m wrong. I just enjoy the input from someone so knowledgable and experienced in this field (FAR, FAAAAR more than I am).

On to some insights:

-First, the top 10 Guardians’ prospects according to FanGraphs in case you can’t see the list or haven’t found it in our News and Notes:

1. Genao 50 Future Value
2. Bazzana 50 FV
3. DeLauter 50 FV
4. Ingle 50 FV
5. Messick 50 FV
6. Chourio 50 FV
7. Doughty 45+ FV
8. Gabriel Rodriguez 45+ FV
9. Kayfus 45 FV
10. Brito 45 FV

I’d say Rodriguez is a bit of a surprise given consensus views at the moment, but Longenhagen makes a good argument that he projects well with above average tools across the board and the ability to play shortstop. Rodriguez is recovering from a hamstring injury so we haven’t yet seen him in Arizona Complex League play this season.

-Longenhagen believes Genao can stick at shortstop in the majors and Ingle can stick at catcher, which have been questions among some scouts.

-Kayfus has convinced Longenhagen that he’s got the skillset to be an above average platoon player. He notes (as I have also mentioned) that he doesn’t have the arm for right field, but has the speed and range to make the plays he needs to out there. It’ll be a stark difference if Cleveland tries Kayfus out there between his arm and the arms of Jones and Noel.

-I’m higher on Brito than Longenhagen but he still sees him as big league average for a second baseman, but a guy the Guardians will likely try in several positions. I think he has potential to hit enough for a corner outfield spot, where his arm would play, so we’ll see how that take ages.

-Longenhagen is way higher on Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson than I am, wow. He sees him as a mid-rotation starter if he can “sharpen his stuff” and I don’t think he’ll make the bigs.

-Exciting news that Justin Campbell has been seen throwing 97 mph off the mound in Arizona. Hopefully, the snake-bit pitcher can make his ACL debut before long, that would be big for a Guardians’ pitching development system that needs some wins.

-Longenhagen thinks Khalil Watson is tracking to be able to be an average major league centerfielder, which is pretty exciting. I hope Watson gets a chance to try that out in Columbus mid-year and then to win the job in Spring Training next February-March.

-He sees Peterson as a reliable innings eater who becomes a long-man on a playoff roster. I like the Guardians’ chances of helping him get to a little more than that (a good #4 starter).

-Valera is still seen as a plus defender in right as a strongside platoon guy.

-Matt Jahec got some love as a guy who should be an excellent reliever with a great slider and excellent command. He’s currently on the IL but should get into minor league action sometime soon.

-He sees Jogly Garcia as a future “Kevin Ginkel-like” reliever, which would be pretty great.

-I think he’s underrating Michael Kennedy as a spot-starter, when I think he’s a guy from whom the Guardians will get some more velo and turn into a mid-rotation arm if healthy. I also think he probably underestimates how the Guardians tend to maximize profiles like Josh Hartle’s, and I see Hartle as a guy with good mid-rotation projectability where Longenhagen thinks “innings-eater fifth starter” is more likely.

-He thinks the Guardians will probably roster reliever Steven Perez after this season! If so, I expect a couple promotions for Perez to happen in quick succession.

-He sees Jorge Burgos as not being able to overcome his poor defense and strikeout rates, Christian Knapczyk as not getting to enough power, and is monitoring Bennett Thompson’s strong start to see if there’s something there for him as a solid-hitting catcher.

Overall, a really fun read with lots of great insights! The FanGraphs list is always a highlight of every year for me, so I hope you give it a click. Here’s the link one more time.