After tough start, Alec Bohm’s production and luck have taken a turn for the better
Alec Bohm flew out to center field in the top of the seventh inning on April 13 against the Cardinals in St. Louis. It was the second out of the inning and Bohm’s final at-bat of the afternoon. The Phillies third baseman finished the day 0-for-3, lowering his season OPS to .331, the worst it’s been all year. It was the second-lowest OPS in the majors among 177 qualified hitters at the time.
Fast forward 37 days, and Bohm’s OPS has doubled to .663. It’s still not a solid number. The league average OPS so far this year is .711. But to double one’s OPS in five weeks means something; Bohm’s been producing.
Bohm went 2-for-5 in Monday’s Phillies win over the Rockies in Colorado. His second hit was a go-ahead home run to center field in the top of the eighth inning. It was Bohm’s third long ball of the season.
The pitch Bohm sent over the center-field wall at Coors Field was a breaking pitch, an 88 mph inside slider. Breaking pitches had given Bohm trouble over the first few weeks of this season.
In his first 61 plate appearances, Bohm batted .125 against breaking pitches with zero extra-base hits. His expected numbers — which are derived from key batted-ball data like exit velocity and launch angle — weren’t much better. Bohm’s expected batting average, or xBA, on breaking balls between Opening Day and April 13 was .176. His expected slugging percentage, or xSLG, was .212.
So, while Bohm was performing poorly against breaking balls, he wasn’t expected to be doing well against them. On the whole, it was a different story. Bohm’s .150/.164/.167 batting line through April 13 was expected to be better. Bohm’s xBA over his first 61 plate appearances was .250. His xSLG was .393.
The 28-year-old was hitting into some bad luck, batting the ball hard right at defenders or being the victim of good defense. But Bohm was more than unlucky. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball.
Through April 13, among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, only two had a higher difference in their actual average and xBA than Bohm’s -.100. Only two had higher differences in their slugging percentage and xSLG than Bohm’s -.226.
Bohm’s hard-hit rate — how often he generated an exit velocity of at least 95 mph — was 51.1% over his first 14 games. He’s never had a hard-hit rate that high during a full season in his career. He wasn’t being rewarded. According to Statcast, there were 16 instances where Bohm registered a hard-hit ball that resulted in an out between Opening Day and April 13; that was tied for the second-most in the majors.
Bad luck aside, not doing well versus breaking pitches was a little odd for Bohm. Between 2023 and 2024, he didn’t have trouble hitting those pitches. He hit .293 against them in those two seasons while slugging .476.
Since April 14, Bohm’s success against breaking balls has returned. He’s hitting .263 against breaking pitches over his last 121 plate appearances. He’s slugging just .342 against them in those trips to the plate, but his xSLG is much higher at .520.
Over the last five weeks, Bohm’s overall performance has been way better. He’s hitting .321/.372/.468 over his last 30 games. Only 51 qualified hitters have a higher OPS than Bohm’s .840 in that stretch. Only one of Bohm’s teammates, Kyle Schwarber (.913), has a higher OPS in the same period. Bohm’s OPS is tied with Bryce Harper for second on the club since April 14.
Bohm’s numbers over his last 30 games are as expected. His xBA since April 14 is .303. His xSLG is .464. He’s continued to hit the ball hard at a 45.1% clip. The corner infielder is also walking a bit more and striking out a lot less. Over his first 61 plate appearances this year, Bohm had a 1.6% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate. Those marks since are 5.8% and 14.9%, closer to where they were a season ago.
Bohm’s deep mini-slump to start the season came after a tough second-half stretch followed by a bad postseason in 2024. People worried. But his early struggles weren’t all self-inflicted. It was more than his issues with breaking pitches. Balls off his bat were finding leather more often than not. He was hit with bad luck. That’s changed. And since the tides have turned on his luck, Bohm’s been one of the Phillies’ best hitters.