Series Preview: Guardians at Twins

It can’t get worse than that, right?

The struggling Guardians will face the red-hot Minnesota Twins for a (hopefully) three-game series starting tonight. The forecast says it will rain through Wednesday. The current Twins’ stadium does not have a roof. So... Idk.

The Guardians are 25-21 with a -20 run differential, 19th in MLB at 96 wRC+, 25th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -2, sixth in Defense at 1.5, 24th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.45, and seventh in bullpen at 3.44. The Twins are 26-21 with a +35 run differential, 14th in MLB at 99 wRC+, 23rd in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -1.8, 15th in Defense at -5.4, fifth in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.76, and first in bullpen SIERA at 3.04.

So... keys to win include: put the ball in play as much as possible and get to the starters before they hand it over to the dominant Twins’ pen with a lead.

Matchups:
Game One, Monday, 7:40PM EDT: Logan Allen, LHP 5.02 SIERA vs. Bailey Ober, RHP 4.27 SIERA
Game Two, Tuesday, 7:40PM EDT: Gavin Williams, RHP 4.04 SIERA vs. Chris Paddack, RHP 4.80 SIERA
Game Three, Wednesday, 1:10PM EDT: Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.68 SIERA vs. Joe Ryan, RHP 2.68 SIERA

Analysis:
Ok, so, missing Pablo Lopez this time around is nice. Sadly, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton will be out for this series due to injury, godpseed their recoveries, but the Guardians’ pitching needs to capitalize on their absences.

Twins’ offensive leaders in this series with at least 40 plate appearances are Kody Clemens 184 wRC+, Harrison Bader 132 wRC+, Ryan Jeffers 119 wRC+, and Trevor Larnach 111 wRC+.

Guardians’ offensive leaders in this series with at least 40 plate appearances are Jose Ramirez 144 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 140 wRC+, Steven Kwan 134 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 123 wRC+, Angel Martinez 104 wRC+ and Gabriel Arias 102 wRC+. Bo Naylor and Carlos Santana sit just outside of 100 wRC+ and the team will, again, need them to come through in this series to have a shot at winning it. Not sure if Lane Thomas will rejoin the team today or not, but I’d be the roster is pretty set until the Guardians come back from Detroit.

I said in an earlier article that the Guardians are at an inflection point on this road trip. Having got swept by Cincinnati, it is IMPERATIVE to get at least a game, hopefully two, in this series before heading to Detroit. Not only would that keep the Guardians afloat in the standing, but it would provide a confidence shaker for a Twins’ team riding high to see Cleveland as the boogeyman they just can’t surmount.

Tanner Bibee was such a disappointment in the last series, so I particularly hope he can give the team a chance to compete against Joe Ryan and show he’s still got #2 starter stuff. Also, Jose needs to stop being a hero who can save a struggling offense, and get back to his good approach. Again, all this IF they can even play a game.