Aaron Nola hopes for brighter, and warmer, days after making strides in last start

PHILADELPHIA — The temperature in South Philadelphia will be a high of 84 degrees on Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Warm and maybe a little humid. That’s the way Aaron Nola likes it.

The Louisiana State product battled an 0-5 start and some velocity concerns in a cold April before making some serious progress on a chilly night in Chicago this past Sunday. It could be something for the right-hander to build upon in the month of May. Nola hopes there are brighter — and warmer — days ahead, beginning with his next outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park.

“The weather’s been pretty nice over here, which is awesome,” Nola said earlier this week. “I mean, it’s baseball weather. So I’m excited for sure.”

Nola, the 31-year-old starter who has thrown more innings than any other big-league pitcher since 2016, has a 5.40 ERA in six starts. He’s walked batters and given up untimely home runs. His fastball has been slower than it was over the course of last season and most of his career.

But in his last start against the Cubs, Nola’s four-seamer averaged 91.8 mph and his sinker averaged 91.3 mph. Those marks were closer to the 92.1 mph fastball velocity he averaged last season. There’s reason to think he can keep trending upward.

“I’ve never been a high-velocity guy,” Nola said, “and usually early in the seasons, pretty much every year, my velocity is kind of low just because of cold weather and stuff. And I think the more I throw, the more I pitch, the warmer it gets, I feel like the velocity and my arm get a little bit faster.”

Some of his ineffectiveness can be chalked up to the season just being young and the air being cooler. However, Nola experienced a similar velo dip last April and found much more success with a 3.20 ERA in six games. He’ll need to pitch better, regardless of where his heater measures on the radar gun. Nola’s 1.400 WHIP would be a career worst, and he’s allowed six home runs in 35 innings.

“He is a guy that can, and he’s shown the ability to, pitch at that tick or two below what his season average ends up being,” Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “Just this year, it hasn’t been as good. But he’s also had some pretty tough luck with when the homers happen. There’s been guys on base. Most solos won’t kill you, and you can win a Cy Young giving up the most solo home runs. It’s just navigating the traffic.”

Of course, adding some extra zip would make this whole operation easier. A pitcher might be more likely to nibble around the strike zone when he doesn’t have his best fastball, which lets hitters get ahead in counts. Throwing harder can change the whole dynamic.

“I think velocity is kind of king,” Cotham said. “We know it matters. It’s not everything, but it is very important. Because the foul ball turns into a whiff, the line drive turns maybe into a pop up. There’s that extra bit of carry. They’re having to be prepared for a little more hard, then the soft plays up. So there’s more chase. There’s so many factors in throwing strikes or not walking guys.”

Nola has worked hard to tweak things in between starts to ramp up his velocity. Cotham said that the pitcher will make many small adjustments in order to find the right balance, guiding his delivery towards where it needs to be “like bumpers in a bowling alley.”

The results improved at Wrigley Field as Nola cruised through seven innings, limiting a dangerous Cubs offense to one run while walking only one batter. His four-seamer and sinker were faster, helping his cutter, changeup and signature curveball — an arsenal that Cotham said is “built to chew through three times” through the lineup.

“I was commanding most of my pitches,” Nola said, “and I feel like when I’m able to do that and get ahead a guy, strike one, and get the leadoff guy out, I feel like things go a little bit smoother than when I don’t do that. It felt good.”

One start doesn’t fix everything, so tracking Nola’s fastball and his performance on Saturday and beyond will be crucial. Cotham is confident that the righty will continue to look more and more like himself. Nola may have a ton of miles on his arm, but he has a track record that he’s achieved through level-headedness and, in his pitching coach’s view, “the best fastball command in baseball.”

“I think the game rewards guys that are — you still got to be good —but it rewards players that work hard,” Cotham said. “And he’s worked really hard at it. He’s never satisfied with good. He wants to be great. Every year, he comes out of the gate throwing a little slower, but it’s, in some ways, not necessarily by design, just part of his secret sauce to being so durable.”

Cotham believes Nola has the routine to make it all work in the long run. Conditions like Saturday’s shouldn’t hurt either.