Series Preview: Guardians at Blue Jays

Say hello to some familiar faces

The Guardians will play a weekend series in Toronto, reuniting with old friends Andres Gimenez, Ernie Clement and Myles Straw (AND Anthony Santander if you wanna go that far back).

The Guardians are 18-13 with a -24 run differential. (The rest of the stats for both teams I am providing are current as of before Thursday’s games as I had to write this post early). They are 17th in wRC+ at 96, tied at 24th with -1.7 Baserunning Runs Above Average, 17th in Defense at -4.3, 25th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.59, and sixth in bullpen SIERA at 3.16. The Blue Jays are 15-16 with a -32 run differential. They are 24th in wRC+ at 91, tied at 24th with -1.7 Baserunning Runs Above Average, 3rd in Defense at 3.4, 20th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.09, and first in bullpen SIERA at 3.02.

The keys to beating the Blue Jays are pretty straight-forward: don’t let George Springer or Vladimar Guerrero beat you with the bat and get runs off their starting pitching before their bullpen gets in the game.

Matchups:
Game One: Logan Allen, LHP, 5.13 SIERA vs. Chris Bassitt, RHP, 2.99 SIERA
Game Two: Gavin Williams, RHP, 4.28 SIERA vs. Kevin Gausman, RHP, 4.28 SIERA
Game Three: Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.65 SIERA vs. Bowden Francis, RHP, 4.40 SIERA

Analysis: As of yesterday at noon, The Blue Jays were led by - in small sample sizes - Tyler Heineman 228 wRC+ and Daulton Varsho 207 wRC+, and - in larger sample sizes - George Springer 157 wRC+, Myles Straw 127 wRC+, Vladimar Guerrero 123 wRC+ and Bo Bichette 99 wRC+. Also of note, Santander has a 66 wRC+, Andres Gimenez after his hot start has a 60 wRC+ (due apologies to Chris Valaika, his struggles were not even remotely your fault after all) and Ernie Clement also has a 60 wRC+. The Guardians were led by Steven Kwan 144 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 138 wRC+, Angel Martinez 121 wRC+, Gabriel Arias 121 wRC+, Austin Hedges 114 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 113 wRC+, Will Wilson 113 wRC+ and Daniel Schneemann 106 wRC+.

The Blue Jays play good defense and have great relief pitching. Everywhere else, they’ve been a bad team. But, of course, except for great relief pitching, the Guardians have also been a bad team. This series we will see if Gavin Williams can have another bounceback performance, if Logan Allen can get back to his excellence in games when his team doesn’t have a generational defensive meltdown behind him, and if Tanner Bibee’s recent gem against the Twins is a blip or a sign that he’s beginning to get his pitching adjustments settled into a reliable team ace profile. This would also be a REALLY good series to see players like Jose Ramirez, Nolan Jones, and Daniel Schneemann join left-handed hitters Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan in their steady offensive output, given the three right-handed Blue Jays starters on tap.