Series Preview: Mets Take on Phillies in NLDS Rematch

Even early on in the regular season, it is always a blast to see the best teams in baseball play each other. It allows one to see how the rosters stack up, how stars can rise to the occasion, and what areas may need to be improved upon for future matchups. When it is early in the season, these types of matchups set the foundation for how seasons can unfold and what the ultimate story of the season might be.

Add in the tension of a rivalry matchup, and that is what this week’s Mets-Phillies series promises to deliver. New York and Philadelphia are two of the best teams in baseball and are pacing the rest of the NL East by at least three games. They’ve already proven to have the upper-level hitting and pitching to make a real run in 2025. Most importantly, the matchup is the first measuring stick each team can use to gauge how they match up against each other.

Both teams, especially after last season’s playoff matchup, have likely had this series circled on their calendars. New York and Philadelphia are ready to throw down to start the week, and we have you covered here at Metsmerized! Follow along as we preview arguably the most exciting series of the Mets’ 2025 season so far!

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (0–4, 6.65 ERA)

• New York has an opportunity to start this series with a statement win, especially considering how the pitching matchups have fallen. Despite getting roughed up against the Twins (eight hits, two earned runs), Tylor Megill has been one of New York’s more reliable starting options this season. His five-pitch mix has generated plenty of weak contact and a decent amount of swing and miss. How Megill gets those misses is key, as his chase rate of 31.1 percent is in the 71st percentile in MLB. The Phillies’ potent lineup will be a big test for the pitcher; if Megill can locate and force chases, New York will have a great shot to win. On the opposite side is Aaron Nola, an unmitigated disaster this season for Philadelphia. With his velo dropping across the board, Nola has likely tried to nibble more in his starts, forcing a higher walk rate. Thismeans hitters are getting more pitches they can drive against Nola, resulting in his increased barrel and average exit velocity allowed numbers. To win this game, New York has to make Nola work and capitalize on his mistakes. They have done a great job with that as of late and will have a great chance to win the game if they stick to their offensive plan. 

Tuesday: Griffin Canning (2–1, 3.43 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (2–0, 2.96 ERA) 

• For the second game of the series, we have the first of what could be two fun pitching matchups to finish the series. New York will have Griffin Canning on the bump on Tuesday, fresh off a dominant performance against the Cardinals. With a nice three-pitch mix and occasionally dropping in a few other varieties, Canning struck out eight batters in six innings. His fastball has been dominant, already earning a run value of three on the season and holding batters to a .111 batting average against it. A lefty-heavy lineup poses a great test for the veteran, but he could cement himself in the rotation this year with a high-level performance. Philadelphia will throw the perennially underrated Cristopher Sánchez, who is off to another great start in 2025. Utilizing a three-pitch mix, Sánchez has some impressive underlying metrics and ridiculous pitch movement. This game will likely require the Mets’ offense to manufacture runs and capitalize on the few mistakes Sánchez makes during the game.   

Wednesday: David Peterson (1–1, 3.27 ERA)  vs. Zack Wheeler (2–1, 3.73 ERA)

• If you did not think Tuesday was the pitchers’ duel, then the last game of the series is what you are looking for. The Mets’ David Peterson has continued to improve as a pitcher, displaying a fun five-pitch mix that includes his wipeout slider. His walk rate has fallen slightly, he is generating more swings and misses (27.7 K%), and he is allowing a smaller number of barrels (5.2%). The Phillies’ Zack Wheeler has been his usual Cy Young-caliber self in 2025. He is not allowing much hard contact and is generating even more misses, thanks to the higher usage of his sweeper and splitter. Ultimately, this game will be decided by whatever pitcher falters first, and it may be long into the game before either one of them does so.

The Main Headline

We all know that the top of the Mets’ lineup will shine when the lights are the brightest. Francisco Lindor was made for New York City’s spotlight, while Juan Soto has the killer clutch gene that athletes dream about. Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo, especially during last year’s playoff run, showed they can rise to the occasion when called upon.

With that being said, my main headline for this series is to see which players can rise to the occasion in the biggest moments.

Can catcher Luis Torrens continue to make great plays on defense and produce at the plate? Will Brett Baty and/or Luisangel Acuña make plays on defense, at the plate, and on the basepaths? Can Starling Marte find his stroke at the plate?

On the pitching side, can Canning and Megill truly shut down the Phillies’ offense to a decent extent? Can arms in the bullpen, such as Danny Young and Max Kranick, continue to make the case that they can be trusted in difficult situations?

I am not saying perfection will occur, as this is baseball. Players will strike out, miss a play, or give up runs in key spots. The sport is predicated on failure and being faced with those failures continuously.

However, it is never too early to discover who the other “dogs” on the roster are. New York has plenty of reinforcements coming; Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil are almost ready to roll, while Sean Manaea and Paul Blackburn could arrive in the coming weeks. Dedniel Núñez will be back in the big leagues to provide bullpen support not long after them. This does not even include the additions New York will almost certainly make at July’s deadline.

To put it simply, the pressure is mounting for many players on the current iteration of the Mets. The team’s core is known and secure, which leaves the supplemental spots on the roster open for the taking. In a series against the Phillies, players can make it known they will not go quietly into the night, or they can make New York’s upcoming roster decisions much easier. How that unfolds will be a fun storyline for the present-day roster and the one formed in the coming weeks and months.

Prediction

It is a rivalry week, and I intend to get my prediction fully correct in its spirit!

I am taking the Mets to win two of three games against the Phillies this week. New York will put up a crooked number against Aaron Nola in the first game of the series, mitigating a couple of runs given up by Megill. And after losing the second game to Sánchez, I see the Mets overcoming their Zack Wheeler-based demons and taking the rubber match. Francisco Lindor will continue his hot streak and launch two more home runs. If he is still on the roster, Brett Baty will hit his first dinger of the season. If Jeff McNeil replaces him, I see him doing the same. I also see Luis Torrens having two key extra-base hits in the series. After this series, the main storyline will be how the Mets are arguably the best team in the NL East and why they were overlooked to start the season.

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