Everyone saw the offense’s slump coming, but fixing it is another thing entirely

We’ve got what we’ve got.

One of the refreshing traits that Royals general manager JJ Picollo and owner John Sherman have shown is awareness. They know how good the team is. They know where the gaps are. They are realistic about player development outcomes. And they are disciplined about making moves that don’t overextend the club’s finances.

Last year, the Royals had two glaring problems. One, in a league where leadoff hitters across baseball posted a .327 on-base percentage, Kansas City’s mark was a woeful .270. Two, the Royals had the second-worst outfield in the league by overall offensive production per wRC+. And wouldn’t you know it, but in the press conference after the season, Picollo directly addressed both issues:

More slug in the lineup is a target, Picollo said, but focusing on hitters who can get on base will be more important. Specifically, the Royals will look to add a leadoff hitter and a middle-of-the-order bat: Someone who can get on base in front of Witt in the No. 2 spot, and someone who can offer protection for Perez hitting cleanup...

...“The offense from the outfield positions has to get better,” Picollo said. “Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys. And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug. So we’ve got to be more productive there.

The Royals went out and got their guy in Jonathan India, acquiring him in exchange for Brady Singer. India’s career .353 OBP was just what the Royals were looking for, and until his hamstring injury the Royals have gotten tough at-bats and on-base ability from him.

The middle-of-the-order outfield bat? That, uh, didn’t quite come around. It wasn’t for lack of trying—the Royals were linked to Taylor Ward, Starling Marte, Jurickson Profar, and Anthony Santander. Ultimately, the Royals weren’t comfortable with the terms of acquisition: the Angels demanded a high price for Ward, Santander signed for $92.5 million, Starling Marte signed for $78 million, and Profar signed for $42 million. But Ward, Marte, and Santander have been mediocre this year while Profar was served an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use. Not pulling the trigger there seems wiser as time goes on.

Unfortunately for the Royals, the outfield is just like last year’s unit, because once again the outfield is the second-worst in the league. Hunter Renfroe looks cooked and may be playing his last season in the big leagues. MJ Melendez has somehow gotten even worse. Kyle Isbel has been fine but still has a below-average bat. Cavan Biggio looks like a guy who played for three teams last year and signed on a Minor League deal in the offseason. Drew Waters has been underwhelming his whole big league career, more so now.

And to make matters worse, the infield doesn’t seem so great, either. Michael Massey has been bad. Vinnie Pasquantino has been bad. Salvador Perez has been bad. Freddy Fermin has been bad. How do you fix this, then? When five players on the team have a wRC+ of 16 or worse?

The answer sucks, because there is no fixing the offense. This is who they are.

Ok, sure, the offense isn’t going to continue to be quite this bad. But this is what you get when you have bad hitters and the Royals have bad hitters. Since 2023, six Royals hitters have posted an on base percentage of .300 or worse—Michael Massey (.276), Kyle Isbel (.285), Hunter Renfroe (.289), MJ Melendez (.293), Drew Waters (.297), and Maikel Garcia (.300).

This is a roster construction problem, most of all. When you build a lineup with a bunch of players who struggle to get on base on average, the slumps are going to be brutal. We’re seeing that right now, and it puts pressure on guys like Vinnie and Salvy to be exceptional. Looking at the coaching is an idea, I guess, but a new hitting coach isn’t going to magically turn guys who struggle to get on base into great hitters, and it’s not going to fundamentally change the lineup.

No, the Royals have to ride this out, for the most part. I think you have to send MJ Melendez to Omaha. He is lost at the plate and striking out nearly 40% of the time; give John Rave a shot and call MJ back up when he’s right. I also think you have to jettison Hunter Renfroe the second Mark Canha completes his rehab.

But the Royals brass knew that there would be stretches like this when they tried to get a middle-of-the-lineup hitter. They, as the rest of us, are in the “find out” stage. If the Royals are to make the playoffs this year, though, they’ll need to make a painful trade to acquire somebody who can move the needle. If they don’t, they’ll simply have a longer offseason for planning.