Series Preview: Mets Enter Twin Cities on a High

It is fun to win baseball games, and the New York Mets are doing plenty of winning!

The Mets have relied on a shutdown bullpen and scraped across enough runs to win in some games. In the rare scenario their pitching falters, the bats have woken up to do damage and play to their potential. And in some cases, like this past Sunday, the pitching is lights out while the lineup laces the ball around the ballpark.

New York is playing nowhere near a perfect level of baseball right now. They need a large majority of their lineup to start doing more damage, as their team OPS sits at .668 while the team batting average is at .214. Additionally, they need a bit more length from some of their starting pitching, such as Clay Holmes.

However, these are things that are manageable with the start New York has gotten out to. They have the talent to be one of the better teams in baseball; without putting themselves in a hole to start the year, making adjustments and improvements is much easier.

The Minnesota Twins have been abysmal to start off the 2025 season, as their 5-11 record is only one game better than the Chicago White Sox. They have a .613 team OPS and have seen the back half of their rotation struggle severely. While they have the talent to be a solid team, they are playing way, way below that level.

How do the pitching matchups fair as the Mets venture into the Twin Cities? What is the main storyline to watch? And how will the Mets fair in a new series? Follow along as we get you all set for another early week series of New York Metropolitans baseball!

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Clay Holmes (1–1, 4.30 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (1–1, 2.65 ERA)

• Unlike last week’s series, the first game of the week has arguably the best pitching matchup. While he allowed four runs and walked three batters, Clay Holmes struck out 10, utilizing his sinker and fastball than he had in his previous starts. He is getting plenty of swing-and-miss while not having his pitches get barreled up. If he can reign in his command ever so slightly, Holmes could be a true asset to the Mets. The Twins are a great team for Holmes to continue his development against; with 120 strikeouts and a hard-hit rate under 50 percent, this is a perfect matchup for Holmes to dominate. On the other side of things is Twins’ ace Joe Ryan. With his dominant fastball (run value of five) and 87th percentile offspeed pitch run value, the stars of New York’s lineup must bring their best.

Tuesday: Tylor Megill (2–1, 0.63 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (0–1, 7.11 ERA) 

• For the Mets’ second game of the series, Tylor Megill takes the hill to continue his good start to the season. Megil’s stuff has been in the upper tier of baseball through three starts, whether it’s his sinker with a run value of three or his slider with 9.5 inches of vertical break compared to the league average. Similar to Holmes, walks have been an issue for Megill; he only lasted four innings in his last start because of some spotty command and has a walk percentage on the season of 11.3 percent. If he reigns in the command just slightly, the underlying metrics suggest that Megill could be dominant this season. On the other side for the Twins is the faltering Bailey Ober. With a low-tier fastball and vulnerable off-speed pitches, the Mets are in a spot to do damage.

Wednesday: Griffin Canning (1–1, 4.20 ERA) vs. David Festa (0–0, 0.00 ERA)

• The final pitching matchup of the series is the one with the most questions behind it. Griffin Canning has been very up and down in the 2025 season; after a great performance against the Blue Jays, Canning got touched up for seven hits, andfour runs, issuing three walks against the A’s. The underlying metrics of Canning’s stuff are below average, but he has shown the ability to get outs this season. As a back-end option in the team’s rotation, Canning likely needs to hit average marks to be productive, and that is what he will aim to do against the Twins. Opposing Canning is David Festa, the 25-year-old pitcher out of Seton Hall University. He allowed zero runs and struck out four batters in his first start against the Detroit Tigers on April 11, showing some solid pitches in the process. In a sample size, Festa limited and missed barrels by relying on his fastball, changeup, and slider. In his second start of the season, Festa will have to deal with a talented Mets lineup, which could have a chance to do some real damage to close out the series. 

The Main Headline

Do not get this twisted: Juan Soto is having a very good start to his 2025 season.

Despite what some rage-baiters and WFAN fans/hosts might suggest, the prized signing of the offseason has been instrumental in New York’s hot start. From a counting numbers perspective, Soto has a .794 OPS and a .409 on-base percentage. When it comes to underlying statistics, the outfielder has an average exit velocity of 92.6 (86th percentile) and a batting run value of four (85th percentile). He has a strikeout percentage of 11.5 percent and a walk percentage of 19.7 percent; both those marks fall into the 93rd and 97th percentile of MLB hitters, respectively.

With all this in mind, my main headline is simple: is this the week Juan Soto finds his power stroke?

The outfielder has found holes this season and has shot the gaps, as he already has four doubles. Soto is also elite enough to be a key asset to the Mets without finding his power; by getting on base consistently, he is allowing Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo to have better pitches to hit and be high-level run producers.

But with all of the numbers in hand, it feels inevitable that Soto will start putting the ball over the wall soon. And with the pitching matchups New York’s lineup has, the time may very well be this week.

I will be intently watching Soto’s at-bats this week, as usual. Because if this is the week Soto adds driving the baseball to the rest of his game, the Mets could be in a position to go supernova on their opponents for the next week or so.

Prediction

I was one game off of last week’s prediction …again. So, let us have at it again for this week.

In their series against the Twins,  I am taking the Mets to win two of three games once again. I see the Mets struggling against Joe Ryan in the first game of the series, narrowly losing to Minnesota due to a lack of run production. But after their Monday afternoon blues, I see the Mets’ offense fully waking up. Juan Soto will have three extra-base hits in the series, with at least one being a home run. I also see Mark Vientos and Jesse Winker going yard for New York. The main storyline will be how the Mets are playing all-around baseball 18 games into the year and how they are potentially a force to be reckoned with in the National League.

The post Series Preview: Mets Enter Twin Cities on a High appeared first on Metsmerized Online.