Royals fans should not be too quick to pull the plug on Sam Long

Sam Long has struggled to start the year, but are fans being too harsh with their criticism of him?

Though Sam Long has only pitched in six innings thus far in the season, he has not looked like himself, and his struggles have been put on full display. His 10.50 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, and .400 BABIP have raised a great deal of concern for Royals fans early in the year, and the question becomes: Will he bounce back? And what has to happen for him to turn it around.

Last year, Sam Long signed with the Royals on a minor league deal and was a non-roster invite to spring training. He quickly made and impression on the Royals staff, and after several other pitchers in the bullpen struggled, the Royals selected his contract for the major league roster in late May.

Long became an essential part of the Royals bullpen for the rest of the 2024 season, and even found consistent time pitching for them in the playoffs. Long easily had the best season of his MLB career last year, posting career highs in nearly every statistical category there is.

Long posted career bests in several categories last year, such as a 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 43 games. His 9.28 K/9, 25% K%, 2.66 BABIP and a 77.8% LOB% proved he was able to come in and get key outs for the Royals in high-leverage situations. Advanced metrics also showed he was effective with a 32.5% HardHit% and his fastball posted a wFA of 3.3, a full 2.5 points higher than his past career high.

Sam Long’s pitch mix

Long has a 4-5 pitch mix, with a fastball, slider, curveball and splitter, all of which he is capable of using effectively. This season, Long has had a massive increase in his slider usage, up over 10%, while his curveball usage dropped 13%. His velocity has remained relatively the same, but I have some concerns about the way that he has been mixing his pitches so far this season.

His slider has been his most used pitch in 2025, as he has thrown it 42% of the time this season despite it having an insane .667 BA against. The slider is a relatively new offering for Sam Long as he only started consistently using it in 2023 with the Athletics. Throughout his pro career, Longs's best offerings have always been his firm fastball and big curveball, and I would like to see him get back to using those two pitches more consistently.

I mentioned a few times last year that I would like to see Sam Long cut down on the slider usage, as realistically it is only an average pitch at best. He has more spin on his fastball than his slider, and the advanced profile on the pitch is subpar with a wSL of almost -3.

On the other hand, the fastball and curveball have been effective this year. He’s only allowed four hits off the fastball and 0 hits off the curveball compared to six off the slider which is more than every other pitch combined. The slider was also tied for his most hit pitch in 2024, despite it having a 7% less usage rate than his fastball which also was hit 13 times last year.

The good news about this is that this is a very fixable problem that I think could be very impactful on his success the rest of the year. Long needs to go back to his bread and butter, using his two best pitches (the fastball and the curveball) to build from. Long does not need to abandon his slider entirely, but simply put, its not working, and he needs to make a change, if he wants to fund the success he had last year.

Other factors in Sam Long’s early season struggles

Simply put, Long is giving up far too much contact and his 15.8% Whiff% is not going to cut it in the major leagues. Last year, that number sat closer to 28% and helped him keep hitters off balance and put them away with strikeouts. The average exit velocity off Sam Long has drastically increased by almost 4 MPH and he’s already allowed two home runs in 6 innings.

He has already given up 30% of the hits he did last season in just 14% of the time. Long is forcing ground balls, but because of the hard contact, those balls become hits and base runners. While the Royals’ fielding has not done him many favors, his 7.17 FIP still shows that the quality of his contact is still concerning.

He also is currently sitting at 4.50 BB/9 which would easily be his career worst and you can see the struggles in command most of the time. Long has struggled to find the corners this year which has clearly had an impact on his confidence. Part of what makes Long so successful is his bulldog mentality on the mound while being aggressive and confident. Kansas City will need that side of him back if Long wants to get back on track this season.

It is fair for fans to be upset with the way that Sam Long has played this year, as he certainly has not met expectations. But we also know what he’s capable of and when you see what he was able to do last year, it becomes apparent that the team should be willing to give him some time to work through his early season struggles.

It may only take some small changes for Long to return to form - adjusting his pitch mix, building confidence and adjusting his approach to be more deceptive on the mound. Realistically, right now the stuff is not good enough and Long is far too predictable on the mound. But with some adjustments, it is more than possible Long can bounce back and continue to help the Royals bullpen be one of the best in baseball in 2025 and beyond.