Orioles series preview: A Wild Card rematch
These O’s ain’t Royal.
Last October the Royals and Orioles faced off in the post-season for the second time in baseball history. Just like in 2014, the Royals emerged victorious with a surprising two-game upset sweep to advance to the ALDS.
Both teams return much of the same rosters that faced off last fall, with expectations of returning to the post-season for a deeper run in 2025. But both teams have stumbled out of the gate a bit in the first week, with each looking for their first series win of the year.
Baltimore Orioles (3-4) vs. Kansas City Royals (2-4) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Orioles: 5.14 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 4.86 runs allowed/game (21st)
Royals: 3.83 runs scored/game (16th in MLB), 4.17 runs allowed/game (15th)
The Orioles have been without three of their top hitters from a year ago - they lost slugger Anthony Santander in free agency, and outfielder Colton Cowser has been out with injury along with MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is scheduled to make his season debut tonight against the Royals. He hit just .167/.222/.208 against the Royals in the regular season last year, and went 0-for-7 in the Wild Card series.
The Orioles tried to replace Santander with free agent Tyler O’Neill, who is off to a good start, hitting .364 with a home run in his first six games. Cedric Mullins and Jordan Westburg are both off to torrid starts, batting over .300 with three home runs each. Mullins hit just .196/.228/.278 against lefties last year. Jackson Holliday had a rough debut season last year, but is hitting .304 with a home run so far this year. Heston Kjerstad struggled to hit away from Camden Yards, batting just .175/.267/.325 on the road last year. Former Royals first baseman Ryan O’Hearn hit just 1-for-14 against KC in 2024.
Mullins swiped 32 bases last year and is the only true stolen base threat for Baltimore. The Orioles are fairly neutral defensively, although Ryan Mountcastle was a Gold Glove finalist at first last year.
All statistics from 2024
Dean Kremer is 1-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three career starts against the Royals, and did not face them last post-season. He gave up five runs in 5 1⁄3 innings in his season debut against the Blue Jays. He relies on a four-seamer that runs around 93 mph with a cutter, sinker, curve, and a splitter that opponents hit just .139 against last year.
Tomoyuki Sugano comes over from Japan after a 12-year career with Yomiuri. Last year he went 15-3 with a 1.67 EA in 24 starts, winning Central League MVP for the third time in his career. The 35-year-old throws hard stuff down, relying on a sinker and splitter, and inducing a groundball rate near 50 percent.
Cade Povich had mixed results in his rookie year, but finished strong with a 2.60 ERA in five starts in September. The lefty has a four-seamer in the low-90s, but his curveball was hammered last year with opponents hitting .333 against it. He really struggled on the road last year with a 7.89 ERA in seven starts.
All statistics from 2024
The Orioles had major bullpen issues last year, particularly in the second half when they released veteran Craig Kimbrel. Their second-half bullpen ERA was 4.81, fourth-worst in baseball. But this year they get All-Star closer Félix Bautista back after he missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. He had a 1.48 ERA and 33 saves in 2023, but has only retired 6 of the 12 batters he has faced this year.
The Orioles acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies last year, and he had a 3.97 ERA in 22 2⁄3 innings after joining them. Yennier Cano had the third-highest groundball rate among relievers at 62.9 percent last year, but his walk rate spiked significantly. Lefty Gregory Soto had a reverse split last year with lefty hitters batting better against him than righties. Bryan Baker has struck out 7 of the 16 batters he has faced, while not allowing a run.
All statistics from 2024
The Royals dropped four of six to the Orioles last April, although many of those games were plagued by the poor bullpen performance that would haunt the Royals early in the season. By the post-season, the Royals had their bullpen sorted out while the Orioles offense went into hiding. These two teams could match up against this post-season, but they’ll need to play better than they have in the first week.