Perfectly reasonable reactions to the Royals’ opening weekend

This is fine

The Royals lost their opening weekend series to the Guardians two games to one. They’ve already played three games and they’ve lost more than they’ve won! Some people are telling me the season isn’t over, but, well, I see a lot of issues

The outfield is still a problem

The Royals' opening day starting outfield finished the series 3-for-23 with a pair of doubles, no walks, and five strikeouts. And, of course, that looks much better than it should because Hunter Renfroe’s double shouldn’t have happened. On top of that, Renfroe and MJ Melendez both have looked pretty poor in the outfield. It really seems like the Royals should have gone out and added an outfield bat during the offseason, but hindsight is 20/20 and all that.

If you include all of the outfielders the Royals have used this year, things look a bit better because Jonathan India started the second and third games in left and reached base three times in each of them. But even if the Royals keep starting him in left and he does OK out there, they’re still likely going to need something other than a black hole in right field that can’t hit, run, catch, or throw.

The answer might be Jac Caglianone, but that’s not for a couple of months at least, and it’s hard to tell how much damage Renfroe and Melendez can do before then.

There is a difference between aggressiveness and recklessness on the basepaths

One of the problems that plagued the Royals all last year, even as they were rated very highly as a team in baserunning, was recklessness on the basepaths that led to being Thrown Out On The Bases Like a Nincompoop or TOOTBLAN. We saw that behavior rear its ugly head once again on Thursday afternoon as Dairon Blanco - rostered almost exclusively for his baserunning ability - made the choice to get into a rundown and confuse what should have been a pretty straight-forward play which gave Isbel an excuse to get too far away from second base and turned a first-and-third-with-no-outs situation into a runner-at-second-with-two-outs situation in the blink of an eye.

The Royals have a lot of team speed and it makes sense for them to be aggressive on the basepaths. But there’s a fine line between aggressive and reckless and they frequently crossed it last year. They’ll need to better identify and avoid it this year if they want to take the next step forward.

Starting rotation

Through three games this year, the rotation has combined to pitch 14 innings while striking out nine, walking nine, and allowing seven runs. Nine walks is too many for 14 innings while nine strikeouts are too few. Also, that’s simply too few innings for this team - more on that in a minute.

This would be less of a concern if we hadn’t just spent all of Spring Training defending the poor numbers put up by Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha by saying it was just Spring Training. It’s not just Spring Training anymore, but the numbers are still bad. The odds would still seem to favor them figuring things out, but the fact that it hasn’t happened yet is still extremely concerning.

The bullpen has a 2014 problem without a 2014 solution

People talk about the 2014 Royals bullpen as if it were godlike. The truth of the matter is that Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland were at least demi-god-like, but the rest of the bullpen was frequently a trash fire. They went out and signed 38-year-old Scott Downs after the White Sox - who would finish in fourth place that year - cut him, hoping to add some juice to their bullpen. The 2014 team got away with that because HDH were so good and so available late in the year and because the starting rotation was remarkably healthy and consistent.

The 2025 bullpen has a bit of the same problem. It’s not identical - they currently have four arms in the bullpen that seem reliable, but none of those four is as trustworthy as any of the three from 2014. The Royals starters are going to need to pitch at least six innings and preferably seven on a regular basis to help avoid the worst arms from having to come in and pitch. Maybe John Schreiber and Angel Zerpa can work their way back into the circle of trust, but the ship seems to have sailed for both Sam Long and Chris Stratton. The Royals will need to replace them sooner rather than later, or get more out of their rotation, if they want to avoid allowing losing causes to get completely out of control like Sunday.

Bobby

Bobby is one of two players to start the year with a three-game hitting streak for the Royals. He’s also struck out five times in 14 plate appearances, and he’s only walked once. Some of you will say it’s too early to worry about Bobby, it’s only three games, and he’s still getting big hits. But striking out more than a third of the time is a lot and Bobby can’t just be good if this iteration of the Royals is going to compete, he has to be otherworldly again. If he’s not otherworldly, the Royals offense may not be able to put up enough runs to succeed.

He wasn’t really a guy who struck out much last year, and the increase in whiffs has me very concerned.

At least there are India, Garcia, and the Pasquatch

I already mentioned Jonathan India, but he’s started the year with a .600 OBP from the leadoff spot. Sure, he doesn’t have an extra-base hit, yet, but a .600 OBP with no extra bases would still be extremely valuable. Maikel Garcia is the player other than Bobby to start the year with a three-game hitting streak, including a game-tying home run in Saturday’s contest and if he can hit like he did in 2023 it frees up India to spend most of his time in left field and ensure that the Royals don’t need to put both Renfroe and Melendez in the lineup every night.

And then there’s Vinnie. A lot of people were ready to cut bait with him when they saw how good a spring Jac Caglianone was having, but even with a strained hamstring, Vinnie has been the best hitter for the Royals in this young season. He was basically the entire offense on Opening Day and has a 277 wRC+ after Sunday’s action. The Royals will need to find a way to fit both him and Caglianone in their lineup this season. And preferably for many seasons to come. You don’t just give up on a hitter like Vinnie, even if he only has one position and seems to be bitten by the injury bug too often.

Anyway, we’ll all feel a lot better if the Royals go to Milwaukee and sweep the Brewers, so let’s hope for that, shall we?