What will be the fate of the Rate at the gate?

How low can attendance go? Your turn to guess

It’s a pity the Chicago White Sox can’t do one of those weird things that happen in cricket, where the side that bats first gets tired of scoring and just declares “245 for 6” or some such thing and they all take a break for tea and scones before the other team bats.

The Opening Day victory may have been over the second-worst team in the American League, one of two in the AL the Sox had a winning record against last year (because you asked, the other was Tampa Bay), and the victory may have been somewhat dependent on Angels incompetence, what with three fielders watching a pop-up drop for two runs (including Tim Anderson, just for old times’ sake) and Jorge Soler striking out on a 3-2 pitch at his hat brim with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth and the game still on the line, but a win is a win and we need to celebrate each and every one. Besides, Sean Burke was terrific and a couple of guys remembered how to hit.

As interesting as what happened on the field, though, was what happened off it, namely the fact 31,403 fans allegedly showed up — about three-quarters of capacity. It might have even been a real number, since the stands looked pretty full, though the cameras managed to not show the upper deck. That’s 94% of last year’s opening game attendance of 33,420, so not a huge drop, just the continuation of a pattern of 34,784 in 2023, 36,948 in 2022, and so on back, with 2021 and 2020 not really counting and 2019 being a rainout.

There used to always be sellouts on opening days, but it’s hard to compare numbers because the capacity has gone up and down with various renovations over the years. Just for fun, though, let us take last year’s opening day attendance with the season total of 1,380,737 (alleged) and insert Thursday’s; if the pattern holds, 2025 attendance will be 1,297,401, which would be the lowest since a 14th-place finish (of 14) in 1989.

A lot of things could change that, of course, including a Miracle on 35th Street where the team is almost adequate or the big impact of Mark Buehrle’s statue and bobblehead, though we need to hope there won’t be another late September boost from those wanting to be present when the record for losses is broken.

Of course, Jerry Reinsdorf will weep and moan, because he’s both incredibly greedy and incredibly whiny, to the point it’s a surprise he’s not in politics. He even groused that following the 2005 championship 2006 attendance didn’t break 3,000,000 — he doesn’t mention it fell a dastardly 42,586 short. We really shouldn’t even call him Scrooge McJerry, because Uncle Scrooge may have been greedy, but he didn’t pretend not to enjoy it.

Of course, Reinsdorf, et. al, make out because they are rewarded for failure by a contract so stupid it’s hard to believe even Illinois and Chicago politicians agreed to it. It’s far from the biggest handout to billionaires sports team owners ever, but many of those who evaluate such things say it’s the sweetest-heart deal of sweetheart deals.

HOW SO?

The White Sox contract with the Illinois Sports Facility Authority is long and complicated and very hard on the eyes of an old person trying to read it on line. But the essence is that Reinsdorf and buddies are getting away with financial murder, paying far less to rent the Rate and surrounding parking lots, etc., than they’d owe in property taxes if they owned it. And on top of that, the ISFA takes care of all major repairs and renovations, to the tune of millions of dollars a year, multiples of that rent.

Some sources say the Sox have paid about $1.5 million in annual rent, on a state investment of $137 million in 1991 dollars — the equivalent of $320 million now, Such a deal, eh?

A couple of sources say the payment has gone up to $1.9 million in the past couple of years. That would seem to make no sense, because payments are based on ticket sales, with the White Sox getting special low rates (or freebies) if attendance falls below a given level — leave it to Illinois to find a way to reward incompetence. However, a chunk of the payment comes from the sale of local media rights and signage at the park, more than $10 million a year.

With the constant increase in those sorts of rights, even for a terrible team, those fees would be rising. But that’s still a huge ripoff of the people of our fair state and city, because the fee only applies to local media rights — Article III (c) clearly states “but not national.” In fairness, in 1991, the ISFA couldn’t reasonably foresee the incredible explosion of national rights for not just broadcast, but all manners internet. But it’s still a huge break for Jerry the Impaler and friends.

That’s it?

Pretty much, though the contract even has a clause that says if the White Sox discount tickets from face value, they only have to pay a discounted ticket fee. Yeah, 50% off means they pay half a fee. Pretty nice deal, eh? Don’t you wish you had one like that?

But Reinsdorf still wants billions from you and me to build himself a monument, right?

The man’s grasp knows no bounds. But, hey, the Sox are .500, so let’s enjoy that and forget the avarice for a few days.

Instead, let’s all take a guess at this year’s attendance. Don’t worry how bad your guess is, since unlike your horrible March Madness pool no one, not even you, will remember it later.