Red Report 2025 - Gavin Lux
We’ll see how he fits defensively, with the hope that his 2nd half offense from last year proves reliable.
Fast Facts
- Born November 23, 1997 in Kenosha, WI
- Graduated from Indian Trail High School in Kenosha, WI
- Is the first and only player ever drafted out of Indian Trail High School in Kenosha, WI
- Is the first and only player to ever reach the big leagues out of Indian Trail High School in Kenosha, WI
- 2016 Gatorade Player of the Year in Wisconsin after starring for Indian Trail High School in Kenosha, WI
- Won 2024 World Series, which was not in Kenosha, WI
- Was ranked the #11 overall prospect in the class of 2016 by Perfect Game, and was originally committed to play college ball at Arizona State University
Organizational History
- Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2016 MLB Draft
- Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Cincinnati Reds for OF Mike Sirota and a reported $1.5 million in international bonus pool money on January 7, 2025
- Will earn $3.325 million in 2025, his second of three arbitration-eligible years before reaching free agency at the end of the 2026 season
Career Stats
| 2019 | 21 | LAD | NL | 0.6 | 23 | 82 | 75 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 24 | .240 | .305 | .400 | .705 | 84 | .319 | 88 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4/HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 22 | LAD | NL | 0.6 | 19 | 69 | 63 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 19 | .175 | .246 | .349 | .596 | 59 | .276 | 61 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4/D | |
| 2021 | 23 | LAD | NL | 1.5 | 102 | 381 | 335 | 49 | 81 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 83 | .242 | .328 | .364 | .692 | 85 | .322 | 91 | 122 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 647/8H59 | |
| 2022 | 24 | LAD | NL | 2.8 | 129 | 471 | 421 | 66 | 116 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 47 | 95 | .276 | .346 | .399 | .745 | 109 | .330 | 107 | 168 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 47/6HD | |
| 2023 | Did not play - Injury | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | LAD | NL | 2.1 | 139 | 487 | 439 | 59 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 44 | 110 | .251 | .320 | .383 | .703 | 101 | .314 | 103 | 168 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | *4H/6 | |
| 5 Yrs | 7.6 | 412 | 1490 | 1333 | 194 | 336 | 62 | 14 | 28 | 155 | 19 | 5 | 145 | 331 | .252 | .326 | .383 | .709 | 96 | .320 | 98 | 510 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 467H/8D59 | ||||
| 162 Game Avg | 3.0 | 162 | 586 | 524 | 76 | 132 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 57 | 130 | .252 | .326 | .383 | .709 | 96 | .320 | 98 | 201 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |||||
Career stats courtesy of Baseball Reference
Scouting Report
Scouting report courtesy of Baseball Savant
Projections
Steamer: 469 PA, 11 HR, 6 SB, .256/.333/.399, .322 wOBA, 100 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
ZiPS: 459 PA, 10 HR, 6 SB, .260/.336/.398, .322 wOBA, 100 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
Outlook
While the two projections above look pretty similar, you’ll see that ZiPS ends up rating Gavin Lux 0.4 WAR higher - that’s because of his defense, which actually comes out as a net positive vs. Steamer’s negative projection.
I do wonder just how much time at 3B these projections actually factored in, since that appears to be something that’s very much going to be a ‘thing’ for Lux despite that 7th percentile throwing arm in Baseball Savant’s scouting report above.
What we do know is what the hope is, and that’s that Lux can continue to show the kind of offensive prowess he displayed in a rock-solid second half of the 2024 season and that is the real player he is after being fully recovered from the ACL surgery that cost him the 2023 season. If he brings that offense and defensive versatility to cover 3B, 2B, and LF, then the Reds have a bona fide piece to play every time they face a right-handed pitcher.
If he’s that, then the Reds got a steal, even if their international bonus pool money helped the Dodgers get better by signing Roki Sasaki. Lux, though, could well end up a pretty perfect fit as a versatile, inexpensive piece on a versatile, inexpensive Reds roster, especially if that 2024 breakout proves real.