Mariners AL West rivals preview: Astros Pt. 2 - Lineup

New faces and new positions make for an unrecognizable Astros lineup.

The Astros have endured plenty of roster turnover during their nearly decade-long dominance over the American League. Core players like Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Gerrit Cole have all departed Houston but the organization has hardly skipped a beat. Even more change is afoot in 2025, and if you haven’t been paying attention to the spring headlines, you might be in for some pretty big surprises.

Position Players

2024 Team Statistics: .262/.322/.418 BA/OBP/SLG, .321 wOBA, 26.1 fWAR (8th)

Key Additions: 3B Isaac Paredes, 1B Christian Walker, 3B Cam Smith, 2B Brendan Rodgers, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Taylor Trammell

Key Departures: 3B Alex Bregman, OF Kyle Tucker, OF Jason Heyward, INF Grae Kessinger, 1B José Abreu

Not only did the Astros let Bregman walk in free agency, they traded away another one of their core pieces in Tucker to find his replacement. Houston also shelled out a hefty $58 million to sign Walker to a three-year deal — certainly they’ve learned their lesson from the last time they signed a first baseman in his mid-30s to a three-year deal worth around $60 million. The result is a lineup that’s barely recognizable from its more recent iterations, though the overall production will likely remain pretty stable. Yes, Paredes is a pretty ideal fit for Minute Maid Daikin Park, and yes, Walker has some really solid batted ball peripherals to go along with his elite defense, but the main reason why the ‘Stros won’t see a big offensive drop off is because Yordan Alvarez is still anchoring the lineup. The big man is locked in as one of the five best hitters on the planet, and only his ailing knees might prevent him from being a thorn in the Mariners side for another season in 2025.

The biggest surprise of the offseason isn’t the departure of Bregman or the Tucker trade, it’s the position listed next to Jose Altuve’s name in the table above. Since his debut in 2011, Altuve has lined up at second base in 96.2% of the game’s he’s played and 84.7% of the total games the Astros have played in that same period. Manager Joe Espada first floated the idea of moving Altuve to left field to theoretically make room for a possible reunion with Bregman or to fit Nolan Arenado into the lineup if that trade ever materialized. Neither wound up happening, but the Astros are moving ahead with the position change nonetheless, though things aren’t exactly going swimmingly out on the grass.

The main reason why the Altuve experiment is continuing apace this spring is the performance of Cam Smith, one of the headlining prospects the Astros received from the Cubs in the Tucker trade. He’s absolutely torching the Grapefruit League this spring to the tune of a .407/.500/.815 slash line. Theoretically, the Astros could break camp with him as the starting third baseman, shift Paredes over to second, and roll out Altuve full-time in left. And even if Smith doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, giving Altuve reps in the outfield now prepares him for the eventual shift out there when Smith does get called up.

Beyond those massive changes, the Astros lineup looks about the same as it has in recent seasons. Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Peña will compete to see which one of them can produce the most batted ball luck with their extremely aggressive and contact-heavy approaches at the plate. Chas McCormick will look to bounce back after an injury-plagued down season last year and Jake Meyers will chase down fly balls in center while providing inconsistent spurts of production at the plate. Those two outfielders certainly don’t provide much confidence, combining to form the biggest weakness on Houston’s roster. McCormick did produce 3.3 fWAR back in 2023, so the ceiling is there but Meyers certainly isn’t the kind of center fielder you’d expect to see on a competitive roster.

2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: .256/.324/.427 BA/OBP/SLG, .326 wOBA, 30.7 fWAR

Replacing Bregman’s bat with Paredes’s looks like it’s a wash so all the improvement the projections are seeing comes from Walker at first and a bounce back campaign from McCormick. The defense should be a bit better at some key positions too; despite his reputation, Altuve has actually been a poor defender at second for a few years now. The Astros have undergone some wholesale changes to their lineup but the net result is a position player group that should be among the best in the American League. Again.