Crossfire: Tylor Megill vs. Paul Blackburn

The Mets have themselves a rotation battle this spring — the product of injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, and a potential plan for an eventual six-man rotation.

Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and David Peterson were locks for the rotation coming into spring. Griffin Canning‘s performance (10 IP, 16 K, 0.90 ERA) and his guaranteed contract have made him another lock. A six-man rotation eventually makes sense for the Mets, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Opening Day roster only has five starters locked in.

So, Mojo Hill and I each made cases for the two candidates for the final spot: Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn, respectively.

Tylor Megill

To me, Megill vs. Blackburn is a fairly easy decision, particularly when looking at how each of them finished last year. There’s just a little bit more upside with Megill—not that Megill is some young prospect anymore, at 29 years old, but I still expect a little more from him than I do from Blackburn.

For all the slack Megill gets, he still ended up with a career-low 4.04 ERA last season and a career-high 10.5 K/9. His ERA+ was 98, roughly league average. That’s perfectly acceptable for a No. 4 or 5 starter, which is what Megill will likely slot in as to start the year.

He posted an even 3.00 ERA in eight games (seven starts) after the All-Star break, with 42 strikeouts in 39 innings. His season K/9 was up by more than three from the previous season. Megill is somebody who’s trending upward—and he had a respectable spring with a 3.86 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.

Spring stats generally don’t mean a whole lot, especially in small sample sizes, but they can matter more when there are tight races for Opening Day spots. Griffin Canning would likely be right in the middle of this conversation, too, if he hadn’t dominated the way he has this spring. As for Megill’s good-but-not-great spring, it’s essentially a wash.

Blackburn, who’s two years older than Megill at 31, is nothing more than a pedestrian backend starter and was predictably underwhelming after getting traded to the Mets last season. In five starts, he had a 5.18 ERA and 7.8 K/9. In 14 starts overall in 2024, he posted a 4.66 ERA and 7.0 K/9. His career numbers in those categories sit at 4.85 and 6.9, respectively. That’s just who he is.

Now, it’s not impossible Megill regresses to that level, given the inconsistencies that have plagued his career. But even if he goes back to his 2023 ways — 4.70 ERA and 7.5 K/9 — that’s about what you could expect from Blackburn, anyway. Blackburn, on the other hand, is very unlikely to post a nearly-below-four ERA with a K/9 over 10.

Megill isn’t a frontline starter, but I don’t think he’s being given quite enough credit. I know Mets fans have been let down by him in the past, but pretty much every stat points to him being a better option than Blackburn. Let’s let the veteran transition to a bullpen role, and allow Megill to hopefully keep doing what he did last year. Because if Megill can more or less recreate his production from last year, he’d be a sneaky weapon to have in the final slot of the Mets’ rotation.

Paul Blackburn

I’ll just start my counter argument with we’ve heard that argument about Tylor Megill for about three years. And if the counter argument to that is the Mets’ pitching lab, why can’t that be the reason to give the guy without any options another chance in the rotation? You can always move him to the bullpen and see what you have there after that.

Outside of that, the Mets got Blackburn for five starts last year. The first four resulted in a 3.86 ERA, then he gave up a ton of runs in the fifth, after which he was shut down for the season after a spinal fluid leak. His expected slugging and weighted on-base average both dipped in his starts with the Mets, and his strikeout and chase rates started peaking. I think the Mets found a good controllable arm with potential at the deadline last season and need to see that through. If he has a rough start to the year, move him to the bullpen and see what you have there. You can always call up Megill then.

This argument largely boils down to roster flexibility. Would you rather have Blackburn in the bullpen and Megill in the rotation to start the year, or would you rather have Blackburn in the rotation and Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez, and Max Kranick — three optionable relievers — in the bullpen? Megill would take one of their roster spots if Blackburn moves to the bullpen. I’d start with the latter. David Stearns has shown a quick hook when a player isn’t performing, but he’s shown to give players he acquires a chance. I think he’ll give Blackburn a chance and option Megill to start the year.

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