40 in 40 2025: Bryce Miller
The cheesemonger’s charcuterie board runneth over.
In Sunday’s tilt against the Colorado Rockies, the new broadcast team of the Seattle Mariners - Aaron Goldsmith and Angie Mentink - remarked on the extraordinary journey Bryce Miller has undergone in the roughly three and a half years since he was drafted. Specifically, they noted, as we did on his draft day, that Miller came to the Mariners as effectively a 1.5 pitch pitcher, boasting an elite four-seam fastball by whiff-generating traits, a maybe of a slider, and a curveball+changeup that should’ve stayed at the JUCO level.
In 2024, Miller threw seven distinct pitches, referencing Yu Darvish as an aspiration in a way someone might reference hoping to make pot roast with the meat they’ve got in the fridge; you’ll have to do a little prep and leg work, but it’s exceedingly achievable. Among the highlights of his cultivations is the refinement of his knuckle curve, which elicits an audible reaction at times from me that I’d prefer to have better control over.
In addition to this devastating gem, there’s the split-change he’s found in aping Logan Gilbert. These two pitches, among the collection of options he’s cultivated, have allowed Miller to shed the fears of his plateauing in a state of struggle against southpawed hitters. Let’s go to another Victor Caratini plate appearance from the same game:
Revolting. Miller’s numbers are what you’d be comfortable getting from your No. 2 starter in many cases, so for the M’s to have a case at placing him fourth in the rotation is testament to the absurdity of consistency within this group. Miller’s charm and consistent curiosity at ways to improve make him one of my favorite pitchers to watch. That’s something he fully won me over on, as I felt at times an agitation in watching Miller nibble around the edges or cede free passes. The extra options in his arsenal are not all as high-quality as the four-seam, knuckle curve, and split-change, but they are ways Miller is attempting to elude the wall he’s sometimes hit the third time through the order. Innovation is hopefully the precursor to another breakthrough for the 2024 stalwart.
Projections:
FGDC: 172 IP, 2.1 fWAR, 3.77/3.94 ERA/FIP
PECOTA: 157 IP, 3.0 WARP, 3.51/3.92 ERA/DRA
Overs/Unders:
Isabelle: Over
This spring, cow print is in, and so are string bean Texans with disgusting knuckle curves. It’s early days, obviously, but I’ve loved what we’ve seen from Miller and though the projections see him falling off a bit, I’m all in on a Bryce breakout.
Eric: Over
Sky’s the limit for Cowboy Bryce in 2025, who has always been my heart’s favorite of the team’s breakout starting pitchers the last 3 seasons. There’s just something about a short king, string-bean of a Texan with curly hair and a mustache who can absolutely whip the ball past batters that just makes me comically fan myself. I could see upwards of 185 IP and close to 3 fWAR, honestly.
Grant: Over
It’s remarkable that I can imagine any of our five starters ending the season as our ace — or, perhaps, the ace in the American League. Maybe I’m a sucker for pitchers talking about their new pitches, but if Bryce’s splitter is anything close to as dangerous as he thinks it is, we might be in for a special season. (Then again, it’s Best Shape of Your Life Season™, so who knows what will actually come of it.)
Kate: Over
I have been in on Bryce Miller from the time he took the mound in Arkansas in his first full pro season and looked utterly unfazed, and that belief has only intensified as Big Tex has continued to evolve. Bryce’s jocular manner and big hat-n-boots hide his big brain, which is constantly humming with ways to improve; there’s a reason Logan Gilbert sees a lot of himself in Bryce, who follows Big Bert’s steps closely. This year, I predict that will be with a trip to the All-Star Game.