Cristopher Sánchez’s spring is off to a blazing start. Will he be the Phillies’ No. 2?

You never want to blow spring training performances too far out of proportion, but when they look this good, it’s tempting. Cristopher Sánchez threw three innings against the Pirates on Friday, and they were tantalizing. He struck out four while conceding two hits (each of them under 83 mph off the bat) and one run, which scored after Sánchez gave way to Tyler Phillips.

Sánchez’s sinker averaged 97.0 mph, up 2.5 mph from last year. He threw 18 changeups and got an astonishing six whiffs on seven swings against the pitch. He’s throwing his cutter. And have you heard? He’s bulked up.

It’s still spring training, so do with the velocity numbers and the whiff metrics what you will. Baseball Reference measures his average Opponent Quality this spring as something between a Double-A and Triple-A player, so it’s not like he’s facing MLB regulars each plate appearance.

But the eye test? Sánchez is passing it.

Sánchez entered spring training as a popular “breakout” candidate, and there would be a compelling case for that if the breakout hadn’t already happened. He ranked seventh in baseball in fWAR last season, posting a 3.32 ERA in more than 180 innings of work and finishing tenth in NL Cy Young voting. It was his first full season in the Phillies’ rotation, but the club had seen enough by late June to give him a four-year extension that’ll pay him $22.5 million over the next four years. At this rate, it’s a staggeringly low price tag.

But perhaps that dissonance between the “breakout” narrative and his extremely productive 2024 is actually an indicator of what could be in store for Sánchez this year. As good as he was last season — and this is where we’ll reiterate that it’s March 8 — early returns suggest he could reach another level yet.

It’ll be interesting to find out when that campaign will really begin for Sánchez — Game 2 of the regular season on March 29, or any later. It’s hard to argue that he’s any worse than the second-best arm of what could be baseball’s best rotation by season’s end.

The order of the first trip through the rotation is ultimately meaningless and sometimes determined by tradition more than anything. Aaron Nola lost his Opening Day streak only last year — not that he objected — and maybe the club simply doesn’t want to slide the longest-tenured Phillie back in the pecking order for the second year in a row, especially when the order of that rotation will probably be jumbled by the end of May anyway. Keeping Nola, himself at five shutout innings with eight punchouts this spring, at No. 2 would be completely acceptable.

But perhaps the Phillies don’t care about that. Perhaps they’ll just give the No. 2 spot to whomever they think is the best starter on the team not named Zack Wheeler, regardless of tradition or longevity. If that’s the case, Sánchez made an argument last year, and it’s hard not to look at the first 7 2/3 innings of his spring and dream of what’s still to come.