Is 2025 Going to Be Another Year Like 1994?

The Royals were awful in 2023. They got a whole lot better in 2024 and even won a round in the Playoffs before bowing out to the Yankees. The Royals are a team on an upward trajectory, but for how long? And what could possibly get in the way of their ascension?

In 1994 the Royals were having a good but not great year. They were over .500 and in the hunt for a playoff spot. That all ended when the season went off the rails with a strike. It was the first time since 1904 that baseball ended without a World Series champion. There is increasing trepidation that a lock-out could happen in 2026. Could there be a year without baseball in 2026? It's possible.

The Royals ended 1994 with a 64-51 record. The next year they went 70-74, and didn't sniff a playoff chance until the 2014 season. For smaller market teams the windows for contention are smaller, since they can't just outbid teams when their good players reach free agency. Right now the Royals are arguably in one of those contention windows. Will 2026 close the window before they can see another WS? I think it might.

The Royals top three starting pitchers all have issues as the years pass. Wacha is 33 and coming off a good year, but will have to get through 2025 uninjured and will be 36 in 2027. A year off could mean he comes back fully healthy, or it could mean he's gotten rusty with the year off and never gets his mojo back. Lugo would be 37 when the 2027 season starts, and his contract even with extension ends in 2026. This may be Lugo's last season as a Royal. Ragans is our best hope at age 27, but he'll be in his 2nd year of arbitration by 2027, and he could be getting expensive to keep on the roster long term.

Bobby could have his best season in 2026, if there is one. He would be 26 years old; right at the peak production years of the aging curve. Or he could wind up with 0 WAR for the year along with the rest of MLB. The next season could be another great one, but will he have a supporting cast to help him? The minor league pipeline of good players is mighty slim at the moment.

Will Salvy even be in uniform after 2026? If so, how quickly will his numbers fade. Father time is undefeated. Fermin will also be past his prime on the aging curve, and as a catcher that curve will be relentless. Jensen and Mitchell are still too green to know whether or not they'll become anything at the major league level. We can hope.

Isbel will be slowing down without an heir apparent. The corner outfield spots could be even a bigger question mark than they are this year. Garcia, Massey, and Vinnie could be better in 2027, but they could also get worse.

Face it, the window of contention for the Royals is this season. That's it. Don't count on 2026 being the season where it all comes together. There might not even be a season in 2026. That's why Sherman and JJ need to sign players to fill holes now at the beginning of 2025. It may just be a 1-year window to get to the Promised Land of another World Seires title.