Convincing Myself That I May Be Wrong About Guardians Players

Trying out for the mental gymnastics team

With the news of Chase DeLauter being out, I’ve been forced to come to grips with the reality that, come Opening Day, I am going to be rooting for Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias, Jhonkensy Noel, Will Brennan, Johnathan Rodriguez and Daniel Schneemann to be valuable players. And, I have severe doubts about that happening in each of those cases.

So, let’s engage in some cognitive dissonance training. Let’s look at the biggest reasons to doubt each player and the explanations of how they can overcome their flaws and be valuable contributors for the Guardians.

Gabriel Arias

Doubts: A 50% groundball rate, a strikeout rate north of 30%, and inconsistent defense and baserunning.

Reasons to Believe: He has hit some balls very hard in Spring Training. His defense has looked solid.

Verdict: Well, he’s got an 85% groundball rate and a swinging strike rate of 17% in Spring Training, and he still jogs to first. As Tom Hamilton preaches the company line of “you can’t give up on a talent like Arias” on the radio, I find myself expecting Arias to be the opening day starter at second and hoping his ability to hit balls hard shows up more often if he is. But, I’d like to tell the Guardians that you can, in fact, give up on a talent like Arias.

Will Brennan

Doubts: He swings at everything and makes weak contact too often. He has a career hard-hit rate of only 32.1% and a barrel rate of only 3.4%. His defense was also bad in 2024.

Reasons to Believe: Brennan hit three balls over 100 mph last Sunday. He has a 6.7% walk rate and hasn’t struck out once.

Verdict: Sunday was exciting but I’d like to see some sustained higher exit velocity for Brennan. I don’t need sexy home runs; but I do need 30 doubles. I don’t see an adjustment from Brennan to try to get deeper in counts and to punish fastballs early in counts that pitchers use to get ahead of him... so, unfortunately, I’m still out.

Tyler Freeman

Doubts: Freeman doesn’t take walks and doesn’t hit the ball hard often enough to be a major league regular.

Reasons to Believe: Freeman has a 15.4% walk rate this spring and a 225 wRC+.

Verdict: He’s still hitting too many groundballs (44.4%) but if he can maintain the increased plate discipline and get some pitches where he can get the barrel to them on a consistent basis, Freeman’s projections and even his xwOBA from last year make him look like the best option to be this team’s starting second baseman. I believe more in Juan Brito longterm, but am reluctantly content with Brito starting the season in Columbus.

Jhonkensy Noel

Doubts: He chases, whiffs and pops the ball up way too much to get to his tremendous power.

Reasons to Believe: His power is insane and he pulls enough fly balls to compensate for the swing and miss.

Verdict: Jhonk has gone into Spring Training with one thought and one thought only - swing as hard as I can as often as I can. And, so, he regularly ends each game on the top of the exit velocity leaderboard but has failed to take a walk and struck out 41.2% of the time so far. Yet, I’d still rather hand him the keys to right field and tell him to relax and try not to swing at sliders in the other batter’s box. He’s the best chance we have of getting above average production in right field, currently.

Johnathan Rodriguez:

Doubts: His groundball rate and whiff rates are too high and the .825 OPS against RHP in the minors the past two years isn’t enough to quiet fears of platoon risk.

Reasons to Believe: Rodriguez has a 186 wRC+ and a 26.7% walk-rate this Spring, accompanying a healthy minor league walk-rate.

Verdict: With the groundball rate still around 50%, I’m not convinced on Rodriguez yet, but I’m more intrigued by him than I am by Will Brennan. If the Guardians gave me Noel and Rodriguez as our opening day right-field partnership (not platoon as they are both right-handed), I’d be content. But, Rodriguez is not a good fielder and that does come into playe here, also.

Daniel Schneemann:

Doubts: For his minor league career, Schneemann had a 98 wRC+. After a hot first 14 games in the majors, he put up a 71 wRC+.

Reasons to Believe: Schneemann has a defensive versatility. He doesn’t look like an average shortstop, but he looked average to above average everywhere else on the diamond (except pitcher and catcher, of course). He also has a healthy walk rate, so, despite striking out 30% of the time, he doesn’t swing at everything. He also had a 38.1% hard-hit rate in the bigs, which was better than Arias, Freeman, Brennan and Noel.

Verdict: I’ve convinced myself that Schneemann will make the roster, but I don’t believe he’ll be a valuable major league player. He will be able to play any position and will run into one now and then a take a walk. The end.

Final conclusion: In case you missed it, Tom Hamilton confirmed that it would be a couple months for George Valera to return to games, and Chase DeLauter is 8-12 weeks out from baseball action. I am most intrigued to see Freeman, Noel and Rodriguez from the list above. But, I do not feel optimistic about second base and right-field just yet. The good news is as soon as I announce my doubts about a player, they usually go off. Prepare yourself for a high scoring Spring Training game tomorrow from the Guards!