Red Report 2025 - Hunter Greene
Does the resident ace of the Reds have another gear?
Fast Facts
- Born August 6, 1999 in Los Angeles, CA
- The above birthday also belongs to one Matt McLain, who was similarly born on that very same 1999 day in nearby Orange, CA
- Has never hit a home run as a professional baseball player. Imagine!
- Attended the same Notre Dame HS in Sherman Oaks, CA as such luminaries as Giancarlo Stanton, “Black” Jack McDowell, former Red Recycler Chris Dickerson, Rachel Bilson, Kirsten Dunst, Oscar winner Rami Malek, and the late Michelle Trachtenberg
Organizational History
- Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 1st round (2nd overall) in the 2017 MLB Draft
- Signed a 6-year, $53 million contract with the Cincinnati Reds in April 2023 that includes a $21 million option for the 2029 season as well as performance escalators that could push the overall deal to some $95 million
Career Stats
| 2022 | 22 | CIN | NL | 2.0 | 5 | 13 | .278 | 4.44 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 125.2 | 104 | 64 | 62 | 24 | 48 | 0 | 164 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 531 | 98 | 4.37 | 1.210 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 3.42 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | CIN | NL | 0.9 | 4 | 7 | .364 | 4.82 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 112.0 | 111 | 65 | 60 | 19 | 48 | 0 | 152 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 498 | 97 | 4.25 | 1.420 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 12.2 | 3.17 | |
| 2024 | 24 | CIN | NL | 6.3 | 9 | 5 | .643 | 2.75 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150.1 | 96 | 47 | 46 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 169 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 611 | 160 | 3.47 | 1.018 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 10.1 | 2.96 | AS,CYA-8 |
| 3 Yrs | 9.1 | 18 | 25 | .419 | 3.90 | 72 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 388.0 | 311 | 176 | 168 | 55 | 153 | 0 | 485 | 37 | 1 | 16 | 1640 | 114 | 3.99 | 1.196 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 3.17 | ||||
| 162 Game Avg | 4.3 | 9 | 12 | .419 | 3.90 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 147 | 83 | 79 | 26 | 72 | 0 | 229 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 774 | 114 | 3.99 | 1.196 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 11.3 | 3.17 | ||||
Scouting Report
Projections
- Steamer: 172.0 IP, 10.72 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, 4.17 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 2.8 WAR
- ZiPS: 154.1 IP, 10.03 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9, 3.62 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 3.0 WAR
Outlook
Pitching as a 24 year old in the 2024 MLB season, Hunter Greene landed on the IL and missed what eventually amounted to 8 or 9 potential starts. That lede may sound dour, but it’s actually meant to help augment the fact that he still managed to finish tied for the highest bWAR (6.3) of any pitcher in baseball with AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
In the 26 starts he did make last year, the Cincinnati Reds ace was positively brilliant, firing a career-best 150.1 IP of 2.75 ERA/3.47 FIP ball while making his first All Star Game appearance and finishing 8th in NL Cy Young Award voting.
You may notice, however, that the projections listed above thing he may well take a step back in 2025. That’s based, I assume, on just how much of a step forward he took last year from the 4.62 ERA/4.31 FIP he’d posted in 237.2 career IP prior to the 2024 season. As a 25 year old, though, I think there’s still an incredible amount of stepping-forward the resident ace of the Reds can still take.
The elite heat is still very much there on his 100 mph fastball, but the evolution of his arsenal is what makes me think he still has even more upside. After flirting with an ineffective changeup as a third offering prior to 2025, he more or less ditched it in order to mix in a splitter and cutter, in the process adding more controllable variability that allowed his four-seam fastball and already elite slider to become even more effective.
He should be on the mound for the Reds on Opening Day this year and beyond, and is already looking like a bargain on his contract extension. Hunter Greene, the Reds ace, is poised to lead the Reds out of the NL Central doldrums and back to the postseason in 2025.