This year’s Royals are better on paper but will that translate to more wins?
The Royals look better on paper, but they might not win as many games as the 2024 version.
The roster that the Royals having heading into the 2025 regular season is just better than what they started with last season. That does not mean they will win more games than the 2024 Royals, but I do like that this front office seems to improve the roster yearly. Let’s discuss why the team looks better and what they need to have go right to match or exceed last year’s results.
Starting with the position players, this lineup is very similar to the one they started with last year. Jonathan India is the only main change to who is expected to play a lot. There are some others like Cavan Biggio or Nick Loftin who might get more time, but they are not likely to change anything drastically. India gives the team a leadoff hitter who gets on base, something they desperately needed that should improve run production.
The potential negatives from last year to 2025 are more about regression than anything. Salvador Perez is a year older. Age is undefeated and he will eventually succumb like we all do, so it is unreasonable to assume he can exactly match last year. Bobby Witt Jr. is the other likely source of regression - he was just sooooo good last year that it will be hard to repeat. When you put up a season of 10.4 fWAR, one of the greatest shortstop seasons of all time, it is hard to expect that to happen again. Hopefully the India addition, along with healthier seasons from Massey and Pasquantino, can paper over any expected lost production.
There are still a lot of other questions for the position players. Can India and Michael Massey cover left field? If not, that could create some other problems. Maybe Maikel Garcia could figure into that left field mix too with India taking third. That whole situation will be a big deal if it can’t be settled quickly. The outfield is just so thin, it is the one true weakness on this team, and could be one of the things that causes this team to underperform expectations. It also is the obvious place to expect an upgrade through trade at the deadline. Anyway, this group looks like it should be similar to slightly better than last year if they can figure out the situation in left so that Renfroe and Melendez can be strictly platooned. There is some reason to hope that one of Joey Wiemer, Tyler Gentry, or maybe someone else could come help too, but I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in any of them personally.
Starting pitching is extremely similar to last year too. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha return and should be expected to do similar things, though Lugo probably cannot repeat last year. Ragans could make up for that by being even more consistent now that he has a bit more seasoning. Brady Singer is gone, likely to be replaced by Kris Bubic. I actually like Bubic better from an upside perspective, but do have some workload concerns. And for now, it looks like Michael Lorenzen will play the part of Alec Marsh. Both are competent fifth starters.
Last year’s starters were extremely healthy, not something pitching staffs get to be often. That is the biggest risk to the group. It is almost impossible to see a scenario where they work as flawlessly as last year time and time again through the rotation. Luckily there is some reason to be optimistic about the depth. Alec Marsh, Daniel Lynch IV, and Noah Cameron all have the potential to figure in. Cameron is the most likely to do more than fill in the 5th spot competently. He has stuff, seems to have added some velocity, and he throws strikes. Lynch is the one I hesitate to put on here, but he seemed to find something down the stretch last season. If he wants one more shot at being a starter, then I would give it to him since he is not likely to ever be more than a swingman otherwise.
Finally, we move to the bullpen. If the lineup and starting rotation are extremely similar to last year, then the real difference in the team is here. Last year’s opening day pen included Matt Sauer and Nick Anderson. The closer was Will Smith. It did not include Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, or Carlos Estévez who are all three likely better than any of the options to begin last time. Carlos Hernández and Chris Stratton might not even make this team, let alone a Rule 5 guy like Sauer was last spring. This group is way, way better than last season.
A better team should win more games, right? Not so fast, this is baseball. There are always the obvious reasons why this team could still miss the playoffs. If Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo both get injured in April, boom its probably over. Every year a team has injuries that derail their plans, think Atlanta last season. That is not the only thing that can go wrong, however. Last year’s iteration of the Royals had a team slash line of .226/.283/.383 with the bases empty and that line moved to .280/.340/.434 with runners on. That is a shocking difference. They went from the 22nd to the 8th-best OPS as a team when runners were on. Is that repeatable, some might say yes, but I tend toward no.
I do not know that this team will be better from a W/L perspective in 2025, but it is set up so that they should. The division is likely going to be competitive, but none of the teams in the central are unbeatable behemoths. They all have plenty of flaws, including this team. Just a few more weeks and we can actually watch the games and see how it plays out rather than worrying about how this looks on paper!