Austin Hays makes early case for everyday role in the Cincinnati outfield
How does that shake up the rest of the roster?
The Cincinnati Reds signed outfielder Austin Hays to a 1-year, $5 million contract this offseason, and in doing so are effectively willing to throw out his most recent, poor season.
Hays dealt with a kidney infection and a mid-year trade for the first time in his big league career, bottoming out with a collective 101 OPS+ in his fewest games played since the COVID shortened 2020 season. He hit just 5 homers after having swatted 54 over the previous trio of seasons, his .396 SLG a far cry from the career .437 mark he entered the 2024 season carrying.
If the Reds are willing to chalk his 2024 issues up to injury, perhaps it’s worth looking past them for a moment, too. Last year, for instance, he smashed LHP to the tune of a .941 OPS, but struggled mightily against RHP at just a .569 OPS. If injuries and absurd BABIP splits (.491 against LHP, just .233 against RHP) can help us write that year off, though, he looks much less like a short-side of a platoon and more like a guy who could, in theory, man a corner OF spot every single day.
In 2022 he actually hit RHP better (.725 OPS) than LHP (.703 OPS), while his 2023 numbers were equally close (.763 OPS vs. RHP, .786 OPS vs. LHP).
None of those stand out as world-beating, must-start numbers on a lot of rosters - that’s why the Reds decision to sign him and not someone better was frustrating after a long offseason of eschewing bigger acquisitions. But on this current Reds roster, with its current projected alignment, an OPS like that against pitchers of any side of the mound might well earn him a spot in the lineup every single day.
Hays made a pretty good impression of that potential in Cactus League play on Monday, homering (and doubling) off RHPs while also swatting a homer off a LHP as part of a record-equalling 6 ribbie day. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon spoke with Hays after the game, with Hays echoing that he’s out to ‘prove I am myself and back to who I can be on the field.’
Things would get interesting in the lineup department if Hays locks up LF against both RHP and LHP. Against RHP, that would likely mean he’d share the OF with TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley, pushing both Gavin Lux and Spencer Steer into the crowded 1B/3B/DH mix with Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. A quick math-do shows that’s one more player than there is a starting position, which means a thorough rotation would likely be in the cards for manager Terry Francona.
That, of course, assumes everyone is healthy all the time to flank both Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz, something that sure as hell didn’t happen this time last year. And, if Hays shows he can once again hit RHP, that cements pushing Will Benson off the 26-man roster and back to AAA, with the rest of the bench dedicated to Stuart Fairchild, Santiago Espinal, and backup catcher Jose Trevino.
It’s a good problem to have here in this scenario, what with everyone currently healthy and the one bounce-back free agent signing showing early that he might, y’know, actually bounce-back.