Elephant Rumblings: Rounding out the bottom of the rotation

MLB news roundup

Happy Friday, Athletics Nation!

I like round bottoms and I cannot lie. So while having roster depth is a good thing—in particular when it comes to starting pitching, the back end of the A’s rotation is a bit of a logjam right now.

Martin Gallegos at MLB.com projects the A’s Opening Day rotation to include Luis Severino, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, Jefferey Springs, and Joey Estes. But Gallegos acknowledges that others could challenge Estes in Spring Training, and many in the AN community would favor another pitcher such as Mitch Spence in the five spot.

Here’s a quick MLB stats comparison of some arms that could force their way onto the Opening Day rotation:

Joey Estes, 2024: 22 GS, 127 ⅔ IP, 6.49 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 1.62 HR/9, 4.94 FIP

Mitch Spence, 2024: 24 GS, 151 ⅓ IP, 7.49 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9, 4.21 FIP

J.T. Ginn, 2024: 6 GS, 34 IP, 7.68 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 3.96 FIP

Hogan Harris, 2024: 9 GS, 72 ⅓ IP, 7.59 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.23 FIP

In reviewing the bottom lines of these bottom-of-rotation candidates, I’d have to give the edge to Spence. He carried a solid MLB workload last season, and despite the marginally higher walk rate, edges out Estes in strikeouts, home runs allowed, and FIP.

There’s no obvious statistical reason to favor Estes over Spence here, but I do recall some musings that perhaps the A’s value Spence as a long reliever enough to keep him in the bullpen.

Ginn made his MLB debut last August. His small sample looks promising enough, but leaves plenty to prove, and the 25-year-old righty’s minor league stats are littered with high walk rates. Ginn pitched to a 3.51 BB/9 walk rate through 102 ⅔ innings in the minors last year with a 4.90 FIP. I don’t see enough here to give him the nod over Estes or Spence.

Walks will indeed haunt, but in Hogan Harris’s case, at least he kept the ball in the park to mitigate the damage from the 4.11 BB/9 he allowed per nine innings in 2024. I think he would need a stellar Spring Training to unseat Spence or Estes, who I would heavily favor to secure a rotation spot over Ginn or Harris.

All that said: Spring Training could change everything! And regardless of where things sit on Opening Day, there will be opportunities to go around as the season grinds on.

Have a wonderful weekend, AN.

A’s Coverage:

• Trends Are Emerging In Recent Contracts
• ‘Sky is the limit’: Miller aims to build off stellar rookie season
• Should The A’s Go With A 6-Man Rotation?
• Injury Updates on A’s Starting Pitchers, Former New York Yankees Prospects

MLB News & Interest:

• 2025 spring training survey: MLB insiders on the players, teams and storylines to watch ($)
• Red Sox To Sign Alex Bregman To Three-Year Deal
• Mozeliak: Nolan Arenado Likely To Be With Cardinals On Opening Day
• Daz Cameron Accepts Outright Assignment With Orioles
• Dodgers Re-Sign Clayton Kershaw
• Clayton Kershaw Expects To Go On 60-Day IL To Start Season
• White Sox Sign Joey Gallo To Minor League Deal
• After a year off, Terry Francona is physically in a good place and wants to stay that way ($)
• Trevor Rogers, Jorge Mateo Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Who’s ready for Miller Time?

Lookin’ good, boys!

Noooooo

And here I’d have expected Miller to say, “Nah..don’t care about that.”