Blogfather’s Annual Baseless Predictions: Pleasant Surprises & Unpleasant Disappointments

Excluding the years when I don’t, every year I take my intuitive guesses as to which A’s players will most exceed fans’ expectations and which players will most disappoint. You can set your clock to it, but you wouldn’t want to because it has nothing to do with time.

This is not supposed to be scientific — hunches are allowed, especially if your name happens to be Quasimodo — and it’s also not supposed to be “top 3 players/bottom 3 players” so much as performance relative to our expectations.

Here are my best February guesses for you to weigh in on with your agreements, disagreements, and lists of your own...

Jeffrey Springs: Pleasant Surprise

For Springs, much rests on his health as he was shut down late in 2024 as a precautionary measure and is presumed to be fully healthy to start 2025. I am giving the front office the benefit of the doubt that they would not have pulled the trigger on this trade unless they had reason to believe Springs is fine.

When healthy, Springs is better than most fans think because he is not a household name. But while his salary pales in comparison to that of Luis Severino, recently it is Springs who has been the better SP and I wouldn’t be surprised if he becomes their de facto ace by May.

A 3.1 WAR pitcher with a sterling 2.41 ERA in 2022, Springs has only made 10 starts since thanks to Tommy John surgery — but even those 10 starts were excellent (49 IP, 38 hits, 15 BB, 61 K, 6 HR, 2.39 ERA).

So in 3 seasons covering 35 starts and 43 appearances, Springs has done nothing but excel. If he’s healthy — a question for all pitchers and a fair one for him — he’s really good.

Gio Urshela: Disappointment

Don’t get me wrong, Urshela is going to make the A’s a lot better at 3B than they were in 2024. But that would be true of almost anyone as the A’s were epically terrible there.

I wrote a column marveling at how remarkably “exactly average” Urshela has been throughout his career, with no platoon splits and roughly 50th percentile stats both on offense and defense.

Trouble is, while A’s fans may be hoping for, or expecting, “about average,” Urshela is trending downwards. He is coming off a season in which he was most definitely below average, batting just .250/.286/.361 (81 wRC) while his exit velocities and slugging have been on a steady decline.

I fear Urshela will land about halfway between the sludge we trotted out there in 2024 and the “league average” we are hoping for. Perhaps he conjures up a 90 wRC+ and defense that is close to average but maybe a tick below. That’s a big improvement from last year’s crew but isn’t “average” at all.

What will be interesting is to see how Max Muncy performs in the 1st half of his AAA season and whether 3B becomes a battle by the All-Star break.

Tyler Soderstrom: Pleasant Surprise

This may surprise you because I have been one of Soderstrom’s biggest skeptics and I continue to cross my fingers that I am anxious for no good reason.

However, Soderstrom is better placed at 1B than he was at C, where league average defense seemed like quite a stretch. At 1B Soderstrom appears to have a chance to be average defensively.

As a hitter, one of my critiques has always been Soderstrom’s reputation for being resistant to coaching/adjustments, which has left him vulnerable as a hacker who often gets himself out. But I have also chalked it up to immaturity and have noted that as he approaches his mid-20s I could see a light going off and sudden improvements allowing him to reach his undeniable potential.

Soderstrom is now 23 and might be reaching the natural maturity that enables him to listen, learn, adjust, and rake. Certainly he showed flashes at the end of 2024, sporting a .279/.340/.512 line in September (12 games) to finish at .233/.315/.429 (114 wRC+).

Perhaps most encouraging was Soderstrom’s 9.4% BB rate. I see his natural abilities coming through in 2025 and hitting, or exceeding, Steamer’s .234/300./445, 25 HR, 113 wRC+ projection.

Lawrence Butler: Disappointment

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all aboard the Butler hype train and if he just repeats his 2nd half of 2024 he’s in the MVP conversation. One drools to think of him building on it and actually continuing to improve.

I think Butler is a great player and I don’t foresee the dreaded Zack Gelof sophomore slump. What I do think is that Butler was so fantastic, so electric in 2024’s 2nd half that he almost can’t help falling short of our fan(atic) expectations.

In reality, Butler is probably going to experience some sort of a sophomore slump even if it only derails a modest portion of the season. Overall in 2024 Butler hit .262/.317/.490 (130 wRC+). In the 2nd half it was a misprint-y .300/.345/.553 (155 wRC+) with 13 HR, 17 2B and 12 SB in 61 games.

I think more likely than either of those two outcomes, we are likely to see a “very very good” Butler whose season line matches one of his projections: .253/.314/.444 (117 wRC+), 26 HR, 20 SB, 3.3 WAR, with defense that is near average but still a work in progress.

I will take a 3.3 WAR, 117 wRC+ “speed/power combo” player in his first full season. But if that’s what Butler produces, most likely it will come as a bit of a letdown to most fans (myself included as I still have hopes and dreams he will move only forward).

Zack Gelof: Pleasant Surprise

I don’t know what happened to Gelof in 2024 and neither does Gelof. But 2023 wasn’t a complete mirage and I have to think he is primed for at least somewhat of a comeback.

And for fans shell shocked and traumatized by the sound of whiffing, it became hard to remember Gelof’s at bats being anything but time to cringe and rock back and forth gently in the corner of your TV room.

It’s reassuring to know that thanks to solid defense, elite base running and base stealing acumen, and raw power, even at his seemingly worst Gelof was a 1.4 WAR player despite striking out 34.4% of the time.

So even a slight rebound to his 2023 form would render Gelof very much a positive contributor and I have to think that some real improvement is inevitable. He’s too talented and too competitive, and showed too much in his 69 games in 2023 for me to think he will Travis Buck his way to obscurity.

Seth Brown/Miguel Andujar Platoon: Disappointment

On paper this duo has a chance to be “surprisingly solid” given the benefit of platoon advantages. But in reality you have two flawed players on both sides of the ball. According to my math that equals 4 types of fail.

Brown had a sizzling 2 weeks and then a dreadful stretch — mostly he is one of those “sometimes runs into one” hitters who isn’t actually that good. Defensively he has fallen off a cliff as he has entered his 30s.

Andujar might get some of his power back in 2025 after playing hurt some of 2024, but he is a batting average dependent hitter and the best thing you can say about his LF defense is “Well it’s a lot better than he was at 3B.” But it’s still poor, just not horrific.

I really wanted the A’s to acquire a CFer and move JJ Bleday over to LF where his defense would play so much better. I think not only is Bleday’s CF defense going to be an issue in 2025, we are going to notice, daily, the huge drop off between what Bleday would have been in LF and what Brown and Andujar are.

OK, there’s 3 possible “pleasant surprises” and 3 possible “disappointments”. Agree? Disagree? Have a better list to hunchify? Do tell...