Keith Law’s Top Rays prospects
Law says that Carson Williams is the most enigmatic prospect in the minors
Prospect season continues as Keith Law, the former front office exectuive, big league scout, and current writer for The Athletic, has released his Top 100 prospects entering the 2025 season as well as his Top 20 prospects in the Rays system.
Keith Law seems lower on the top end of the Rays system than most pundits as only two players graced his Top 100, with Carson Williams slotting in at 8th overall and 2023 first rounder Brayden Taylor placed at 89th; Xavier Isaac was on his just missed list. According to Law, it took some extra convincing from scouts to decide to include Taylor among the Top 100.
Among Keith Law’s Top 20 Rays prospects, there few surprises. The article is paywalled, so I’ll only share the Top 10 and some tidbits of the blurbs that I found interesting.
- Carson Williams
- Brayden Taylor
- Xavier Isaac
- Theo Gillen
- Brailer Guerrero
- Tre’ Morgan
- Aidan Smith
- Trevor Harrison
- Gary Gill Hill
- Santiago Suarez
Some notable information on several players:
Carson Williams
Williams is the most enigmatic prospect in the minors to me: He does absolutely everything you’d want a position-player prospect to do, except he strikes out way too often...
Williams is a plus defender at short with an easy plus arm. He has 70 speed and shows above-average to plus power
Theo Gillen
He has a pretty, left-handed swing that produces hard contact to all fields, with above-average power in BP that hasn’t carried over so far. He’s a strong kid and well put together, with harder contact and more in-game power very likely as he matures...
The Rays are moving him to center, where his 70 speed should make him at least an above-average defender and perhaps a lot more, given how positive the early reports on his defense were. He could be a star if he hits as expected
Brailer Guerrero
It’s real, now power, at least a 60 and trending up, with plus bat speed and the exit velocities to back it up. He’s not just a power bat, with some feel to hit already...
He could be the best hitter the Rays have produced in a very long time.
Aidan Smith
He shows good ball/strike recognition and has started to pick up breaking stuff more often, although that will probably be his biggest developmental hurdle going forward. I think he’s a solid regular with a decent shot to be a 55, ending up a high-OBP right fielder with 15-18 homers a year.
Brody Hopkins
He’s a low three-quarters guy with a loose, very fast arm, working up to 98-99 with movement, and can spin two breaking balls, led by a slider he uses almost as much as the fastball. He’s seen his control tick up already in his year-plus in pro ball — and he’s only been a full-time pitcher for less than three years.
Chandler Simpson
Yes, Simpson might be the fastest man in baseball, or at least in the minors. It’s truly 80 speed. He stole 104 bases in 121 attempts in the minors last year, and 94 in 109 attempts the year before. It’s game-altering speed. He never strikes out, coming in around 9 percent in each of the last two years, and since he’s an 80+ runner, any ball he puts in play could become a single. However, he also has grade 20 power...
I get the excitement, and if I played fantasy baseball I’d want him on my team, but in real major-league terms, I find it hard to see him as more than a 0.5 WAR/year player.
Dominic Keegan
Keegan looks like a strong backup catcher who might play every day for some teams. He’s worked hard on his defense and game-calling to overcome what are probably just a 45 glove and 50 arm.
Overall, Keith Law ranks the Rays system as 9th best in baseball.
The Rays only put two guys on the top 100, but the quality doesn’t fall off as quickly as you move through their top 20 as it does for most organizations. They still develop talent as well as any team in baseball, and they have a lot of depth, especially in potential starting pitching, that at least somewhat mitigates the paucity of likely stars in the system beyond Carson Williams.