PECOTA projections relatively low on Phillies’ 2025 outlook
The Phillies in 2025 do not look terribly different from last year’s edition, and some might even say the roster regressed a bit, and this probably isn’t the happiest their fans will have ever entered a spring training, and there are still reasons to be confident in the club’s outlook as an NL East favorite and World Series contender. Much of the baseball community is.
PECOTA is not.
The simulation model, which projects a range of win totals for each team and averages that range out to provide a specific wins estimate, has the Phillies as the third-winningest team in the NL East this upcoming season, obviously behind the Braves and Mets. It estimates 87.6 wins for Philadelphia — which, rounded, would be a seven-win regression from last year — compared to 89.1 for New York and 91.9 for Atlanta.
Interestingly, PECOTA has the Phillies allowing the most runs out of that trio of division contenders, despite trotting out arguably the best starting rotation in baseball and a bullpen that, while it lost Jeff Hoffman, is on pretty equal footing with the Braves’, and probably a notch above the Mets’. It also has the Phillies and Mets outscoring the Braves, who have a real case for the best lineup of the three.
“Fine, but the Phillies are built for the postseason,” you may retort. PECOTA isn’t convinced. The model gives the team just the 10th-highest chance to win the World Series, at 4.3%. Notable (read: questionable) teams listed above Philadelphia in that regard include the Chicago Cubs (who, in fairness, have the easiest path to the postseason via a weaker division), the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners.
PECOTA did not love the Phillies last year either, projecting 84 wins for a club that went on to win 95. It did, though, project 90 wins the year before, which was spot-on, and missed by just one the year before that.
So take all of it with a grain of salt, or don’t. Do the Cubs have a 7.5% chance, fourth-highest in MLB, to win the World Series? The Dodgers are the title favorites, but is 21.6% a bit high? Should the Tigers really only be projected for 79.9 wins this year, and the Royals 81.3?
Maybe. The assessment here is no. But hey. That’s why “here” is not a computer.
Must-read Phillies content
- One of the best umpires — if not the best umpire — in baseball got fired on Monday. His legacy, in part, has a Phillies tie-in. Destiny Lugardo explains.
- PECOTA might disagree, but Rob Thomson thinks the Phillies will match up alright with the best team in the league.
- If you haven’t already: Vote in our fan poll on which of the Phillies’ three main pending free agents the team should prioritize in extension talks, then read what the PN staff think.
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