2025 Mets Pitching Preview: David Peterson

Next up on the 2025 Pitching Preview is David Peterson. 

(Previous: Sean Manaea.)

Peterson was coming off a hip surgery following the 2023 season, which delayed his 2024 season start. However, he came back as one of the most consistent pitchers in the Mets rotation for 2024. He was 9 -1 through his first 10 decisions and finished the 2024 season with a 10-3 record and a 2.90 ERA. 

While his K/9 dropped from 10.4 in 2023 to 7.5 in 2024, his WHIP decreased from a 1.57 to a 1.29 and his FIP dropped drastically from 4.34 to 3.67. 

Below is a breakdown of his 2024 stats. 

Peterson had a five-pitch arsenal last year consisting of a fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball. The sinker was his go-to pitch, throwing it 31% of the time, but he did utilize most of his pitches pretty evenly.  The only pitch he did not throw often was his curveball, only throwing it 7.6% of the time. As can be seen on the graph, Peterson’s selection varied over the course of the last five games down the stretch. The sinker and the fastball traded off as his most consistent pitch and his changeup and slider changed off as his most prevalent off-speed pitches. Peterson really used all of his pitches to his advantage to keep batters on their toes.  

The sinker was Peterson’s most effective pitch in the zone.  This pitch earned him a 26.7% called strike rate and tallied a launch angle of only 5.3, meaning that most often when this pitch was hit, it resulted in ground balls. Coupling this with his 7.5 K/9 shows that Peterson changed his approach to throw more toward contact in 2024. This change in his game seemed to pay off as many of his major statistics resulted in better numbers.

Peterson relied on both his slider and changeup for his off-speed pitches. He threw his slider 18.4% of the time, slightly more than his changeup, at 16.4% of the time. The slider was Peterson’s most effective swing-and-miss pitch, tallying a 14.8% swing-and-miss rate. These off-speed pitches were both effective in getting batters to swing and miss as well as inducing ground balls.  

Despite having a late start, Peterson really helped anchor the Mets’ starting rotation. While his approach on the mound was different, it resulted in success. He showed a bit of his true potential, reinforcing why the Mets drafted him as a first-round pick in 2017. It will be interesting to see what part of his game will stay (will he keep pitching to contact?) and what improvements will be made during the off-season to help Peterson mature to show consistency in this rotation. The Mets will need it with players like Kodai Senga and Paul Blackburn coming back from injury, and Clay Holmes looking to stretch himself out as a starter.

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