PECOTA Projects Mets’ 2025 Record

Baseball Prospectus released their annual PECOTA projections Monday. The forecast for the Mets? Good news.

Before we get to that, according to Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA projections do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range.

PECOTA projects the Mets will finish the 2025 season with an 88.9-73.1 record. They have a 27.2% chance to win the division, a 50.3% chance of nabbing a Wild Card spot and a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs. In addition, they have a 50.5% likelihood to make the division series and a 6% chance to play in the World Series. The Mets will supposedly score 777 runs [third best after Dodgers (834) and D-backs (778)] and allow 704 runs.

While PECOTA projects the Braves to win the NL East in 2025 with a 92.4-69.6 record, the Mets’ record gives them the top Wild Card spot. The Phillies (87.5-74.5) and the Diamondbacks (86.4-75.6) would round out the other two NLWC spots. Last year, PECOTA accurately predicted the Mets would nab the third and final NL Wild Card spot.

Elsewhere in the league, PECOTA projects the Dodgers will have the best record in MLB at 103.8-58.2. Meanwhile, the Yankees are projected to be crowned the AL wins leader with an 89.7-72.3 record. The Chicago Cubs (90.6-71.4), Minnesota Twins (86.2-75.8) and Texas Rangers (89.3-72.7) are predicted to win their respective divisions.

It’s important to note these projections don’t account for any additional offseason moves. That means if the Mets do reunite with Pete Alonso, things only look better from here.

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