Free Agent Profile: Spencer Turnbull, RHP

Spencer Turnbull, RHP

Position: RHP B/T: R/R
Age: 32 (09/18/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 17 G (7 GS), 54 1/3 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 3-0, 58 SO, 20 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 154 ERA+, 26.1 K%, 9.0 BB%, 4.05 xERA, 3.85 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR

Rundown

Spencer Turnbull’s career has been plagued by injuries, preventing him from finding consistency. When healthy, he has been effective, albeit not particularly dominantly. He owns a 4.06 career ERA and 3.83 FIP, numbers that indicate he’s capable of holding a major league role.

After the 2023 season wrapped up, Turnbull was non-tendered by the team that drafted him in the second round back in 2014, the Detroit Tigers. The Phillies picked him up for $2 million, hoping to get the healthy Turnbull who posted a 4.61 ERA in 148 1/3 innings during the 2019 season. While he didn’t come close to eclipsing that 150-inning mark in 2024, the Phils should still be satisfied with his contributions.

However, Turnbull mainly served as rotational depth for the Phillies. Their star-studded group consisting of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez were more than capable of handling things. Taijuan Walker, while struggling, had a spot over Turnbull as well. So despite the fact he initially earned a spot in the rotation due to an injury to Walker, his return made Turnbull the odd man out. As the season progressed, it became clear that Turnbull deserved the fifth-starter job over Walker. Unfortunately, just as the Phillies recognized this, Turnbull injured his right lat during his first start back in the rotation in June. It would ultimately end his season prematurely.

In 2024, Turnbull posted a 2.65 ERA and 154 ERA+, though it came in just 54 1/3 innings. While the small sample size is worth noting, his advanced stats offer a glimpse of what he has to offer. He struck out 58 in those 54 1/3 innings (9.6 K/9), ranking in the 73rd percentile, per Baseball Savant. Additionally, he kept the ball on the ground effectively, with a percentage in the 76th percentile. Despite his decent strikeout numbers, he struggled to generate chases (14th percentile in chase percentage) and wasn’t great at getting whiffs either (49th percentile).

Part of the reason Turnbull has trouble getting swings and misses is due to his relatively soft fastball. In 2021, his fastball velocity was 94.1 miles per hour, but by 2024, it dropped down to 93.2. Interestingly, the pitch classified as his “fastball” is more of a cutting fastball, which is now his primary pitch and thrown at about 92 miles per hour. His best weapon, however, is his nasty sweeper, which features nearly nine inches of horizontal run. Batters hit just .145 against the sweeper, compared to .280 against his cutter.

In addition to his cutter and sweeper, which he threw at a 34.8% and 33.2% clip, respectively, Turnbull also mixes in a sinker, slider, changeup and traditional curveball.

Contract

Turnbull’s extensive injury history will almost certainly limit him to a one-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors’ prediction of a one-year, $7 million contract seems like a reasonable expectation. He finds himself in a unique position where teams could see him as either a starting pitcher or a reliever, but in either role, his contract is likely to fall within the $5-10 million range. His upside remains evident, especially after his solid 2024 showing. Nevertheless, concerns over durability will keep his deal on the shorter side, and it could potentially include incentives or performance bonuses to offset the risk.

Recommendation

Turnbull is far from a bad pitcher; in fact, the opposite may be true. He’s too good to be viewed as mere “depth,” and the Mets already have four pitchers on their roster comparable to him: Jose Buttó, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill. All of those pitchers are borderline No. 5/No. 6 starters and could also factor into the bullpen mix at some point.

However, with injuries an inevitable part of any team’s season, a pitcher like Turnbull provides valuable insurance and can help lighten the load, especially since it appears as though New York is committing to a six-man rotation for the time being. His health may still be a bit of a wild card, but he can offer length as a long reliever or spot starter.

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