Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections have Royals firmly in contention in the division

Szymborski, Szymborski, Szymborski!

The Royals had a surprisingly good year last year, and the projection systems do not expect a major regression as the team is currently constructed. Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs has his annual ZIPS projections out for the Royals, and it reflects much of what the fanbase has already determined - a superstar player surrounded by a weak crew of hitters in the outfield, a strong starting rotation with an average bullpen.

Szymborski writes that while we shouldn’t expect Bobby Witt Jr. to put up his MVP-type season every year, he is still extremely good and his projection over the next five years is better than anyone except Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani. One of his comps is Alex Rodriguez, which puts the young star on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

There are some other bright spots like a projected 121 OPS+ from Vinnie Pasquantino, and ZIPS is not quite projecting a sharp decline yet for Salavdor Perez. Much of the rest of the lineup does not project very well, although some of the depth the Royals built up with the Jonathan India trade could help. The projection of .237/.310/.437 may seem optimistic for MJ Melendez, but ZIPS has him as an awful defender, making him barely over replacement-level. Symborski laments the Royals haven’t done more to address those positions.

What is disappointing, given how competitive the projections are for the Royals as a whole and how close they are to the Guardians and Twins, is that Kansas City didn’t make a more vigorous attempt to upgrade its corner outfield spots

Other outfielders that project to be worth more than Melendez and Hunter Renfroe are Drew Waters, Dairorn Blanco, Carter Jensen, John Rave, Nelson Velazquez, Joey Wiemer, Gavin Cross, and Javier Vaz.

On the pitching side, Szymborski notes the rotation is in the top-third of baseball. It should be noted that ZIPS doesn’t quite project playing time, so that makes it difficult to project players like who might start or relieve like Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh. Szymborski is intrigued by pitching prospect Noah Cameron, writing:

A control pitcher who can avoid hard contact and knows how to get some strikeouts is someone worth watching.

The bullpen projects as league-average with ZIPS projecting an improvement for John Schrieber. There isn’t a ton of depth here, but it should be a bit more top-heavy with good predictions for Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey.

Overall the projections foretell good things for the Royals. Szymborski expects the Royals to be competitive for the division title, particularly if they continue to add to the roster.

From a preliminary standpoint, ZiPS projects Kansas City to finish with 82-85 wins in 2025. That’s tantalizingly close to competing on equal terms with the Twins and Guardians, close enough that the Royals should keep adding this offseason to pull ahead of their division rivals and make a run at another postseason appearance.