How the Mariners can reclaim the AL West with another Tampa Bay Rays trade
Fixing the ills of Seattle’s off-season without trading away from the vaunted rotation.
New year, same roster. The Seattle Mariners have engaged in their most passive offseason yet, baffling fans, this site’s staff, and both local and national journalists and commentators. The rumor mill has churned slowly, and this week we intend to look at a number of frameworks to meet Seattle’s offseason needs and put the M’s in the driver’s seat in the American League West. Today, that begins with one of the longest-standing fits - a deal with Jerry Dipoto’s favorite trading partner that would immediately push Seattle into pole position in the West at a financial cost even John Stanton wouldn’t turn his nose up at.
The Trade
Seattle sends RHP Matt Brash, OF Mitch Haniger, 1B Tyler Locklear, C Harry Ford, and LHP Brandyn García, and $5m to Tampa Bay in exchange for 1B/3B Yandy Díaz and 2B Brandon Lowe.
The Fit for Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is in a weird spot right now. Their usual state of perpetual competitiveness through a constant churn of their arbitration-eligible players was disrupted by Wander Franco’s unofficial ban (which may soon turn into an official ban) from baseball. The loss of their star has left them rudderless in one of the game’s toughest divisions. They appear ready to take a minor step back this year, already having dealt Randy Arozarena to Seattle and recently shedding Jeffrey Springs and his salary in a deal with the A’s.
Díaz and Lowe are the team’s best remaining hitters, and both have contracts that expire in 2026 (that 2026 year is a club-friendly team option in both cases). They are also the only current position players over the age of 30 on the Rays’ roster. If the Rays aren’t competing in 2025, it makes a lot of sense for them to cash in those chips now or during this year’s trade deadline.
Since they have the leverage to wait for July to deal them, Tampa reportedly has a high asking price on these two. Reports suggest the Rays want at least two prospects and a big leaguer in exchange for Díaz alone. This “we need to be blown away to trade them” mentality is not dissimilar from the Mariners’ approach with Luis Castillo, so the above package reflects what it would realistically take to get this done.
With Matt Brash, Tampa gets one of the game’s elite young relievers in a Rays uniform for up to four seasons, with the first one being on the league minimum. Tampa Bay can afford to be patient with Brash’s rehab from Tommy John surgery as well, given they will not need his contributions ASAP as Seattle would. It’s quite likely Brash returns to form and is one of the sport’s elite relievers, something Tampa Bay can lean on for their next competitive window in a few years, or flip at the deadline themselves to enrich their roster elsewhere. Haniger sadly is the odd man out here, with Seattle lacking a spot to play him and lamenting his paycheck. Tampa can choose to allow him and non-roster invitee Eloy Jimenez battle it out for a bench bat role, or simply move on. Locklear is an analytics darling they can slot right into their 2025 lineup and hopefully develop into their next core. García gives them an almost-MLB ready arm with big stuff that the Rays can either mold into a high-leverage reliever or a mid-rotation starter. Ford is a prospect that the Rays reportedly covet. Unlike some other clubs Seattle has been connected to this winter in trades (Cubs, Orioles, Dodgers), Tampa Bay has a serious lack of present and future standout talent at the catching position, making Ford a maximally appealing fit.
The Fit for Seattle
This one move takes care of an off-season's worth of upgrades. Díaz and Lowe immediately slot into the middle of Seattle’s lineup. The best part for the M’s: these two would only add $20.5M to their 2025 payroll ($10M for Díaz, $10.5M for Lowe), well within their meager budget if Seattle is able to shave most of Haniger’s contract, which in this framework drops the total cost add to around $10m. Two starters likely to be average or better big leaguers at that rate is a cost Seattle will be hard-pressed to find anywhere else this winter.
The package headed to Tampa in this scenario would sting for Seattle. But, it allows them to keep the starting rotation intact and hang onto all of their top 5 prospects.
Díaz fits the Jerry Dipoto mold to a T, with a career 130 wRC+ powered by elite plate skills (8.1% BB rate vs. 15.3% K-rate in 2024) and a gap-to-gap power set that should fit T-Mobile Park. Defensively, he’s mostly a first baseman at this point, and a pretty poor one at that. In this scenario, he’s coming in as the everyday DH — the best one Seattle has had since Nelson Cruz. He can cover first against lefties to give Luke Raley a break, though asking him for more than an extremely sparing appearance at third is ambitious.
Lowe is, in many ways, a Jorge Polanco redux — a 30-year-old 2B-only with below-average contact skills, above-average power, and a spotty health record. Though, I’d give Lowe a full grade more power than Polanco with a more consistent track record overall. Lowe’s injuries have come from all across the spectrum — he’s basically a walking game of Operation. The consistent issue has been his lower back, which is one of the tougher injuries to shake. He’s unlikely to ever have a fully healthy season, though he’s played in at least 100 games in three of the last four seasons.
When he’s on the field, Lowe is a 120 wRC+ hitter who has reliably produced. In his seven big league seasons, he’s never posted a wRC+ below 100. Lowe is close to average defensively, with average range and a below average arm. This scenario allows the Mariners to keep Cole Young, who would be filling in for Lowe when he inevitably has to miss some time.
With these two in the fold, you’re looking at something like the following Opening Day lineup for the Mariners:
- RF Victor Robles
- CF Julio Rodríguez
- DH Yandy Díaz
- C Cal Raleigh
- LF Randy Arozarena
- 2B Brandon Lowe
- 1B Luke Raley
- SS J.P. Crawford
- 3B Dylan Moore
This lineup firmly puts them in “division favorites” territory on paper. With this move, the M’s can maintain their stalwart rotation, dramatically improve their lineup, and maintain much of the middle infield depth up and down the system that they will rely on to spell some of the more fragile members of their roster. Both Yandy and Lowe have club options for $12m and $11.5m for the 2026 season, allowing the M’s flexibility to retain them for relatively minimal cost. Though this deal stings immensely by moving on from one of the M’s two dynamite relief arms, betting on the M’s to find a low-cost solution in the bullpen is something we’ve seen them succeed in at a far higher rate than manufacturing bats. To solidify themselves as the team to beat in the AL West, with a lineup that can match their rotation, this trade moves the needle enough to be worth the sting.