Spring Training Preview: Second Base Battle

Who will vie to replace Andres Gimenez beginning next month?

The Cleveland Guardians traded Andres Gimenez so the question of who will play second base for them in 2025 is an open one as they enter Spring Training a month from now.

Below, I’ll examine the prominent options who seem set to compete for at-bats as the double-play partner for Brayan Rocchio in the season ahead.

The Safe Choice: Tyler Freeman

Freeman will turn 26 in May 2025, after being given a chance to claim a starting job in centerfield in 2024 and failing to do so. Freeman did not grade out well defensively in center and ended up with a very Andres Gimenez-like 84 wRC+ overall. Freeman had a 13.8/7.1 K/BB%, which is solid and his expected weighted on-base average of .303 isn’t terrible. One can reasonably expect him to improve on his .227 batting average on balls in play and he graded out very well defensively in his brief opportunities at second base. Freeman also has the best sprint speed on this list; his 11/17 stolen base rate from 2024 was bad, but maybe there’s more to unlock there with additional experience.

So, why aren’t more people on the Tyler Freeman train? Well, it’s because he doesn’t put the barrel on the ball with a 3.2% barrel rate and a 24.7% hard-hit rate. He’s got a 46% groundball rate for his career and only pulls the ball 39% of the time. So, his struggles to hit the ball hard are not particularly mitigated by the ability to pull balls in the air. Additionally, as a right-handed hitter, his pulled fly balls don’t play as well as they would for lefty hitters at Progressive Field. Is there reason to think he can get closer to his xwOBA numbers and provide something close to the Steamer projected 109 wRC+ number for him? I think so. Do I want that to be the team’s primary plan entering the season? Not particularly. But, of the options on hand, I do think giving Freeman a chance is probably the safest to provide solid value. Freeman does have one option remaining which may be a downside to his ability to beat out the optionless player listed below, but should be good news for his sticking on the roster overall and providing some good depth on the infield as needed.

The Betting Favorite: Gabriel Arias

Arias does not have an option so he must open the season on the roster or be traded/DFA’d. I think Arias’s primary point in favor of him making the roster is that he is the best option at shortstop aside from Rocchio (and may even be better defensively than the Gold Glove nominee). Arias has an absolute Howitzer for an arm and can make some spectacular plays... but he also seems to inexplicably lose focus at times and misplay easy outs. And, then, of course, there is his bat - no one is excited to see the hitter who had a 70 wRC+ and 32.9/3.7% K/BB% return to the lineup. His groundball rate is over 50% and his in-zone contact rate in the bigs is an atrocious 74%. He chases too much and makes too little contact in the zone to mitigate his overall whiff and groundball issues, from all that I can see.

BUT he does have a 32.7% overall hard-hit rate and a healthy maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph. When he connects, he has such easy power that a lot of baseball people way smarter than I am believed in him all the way through 2024, and that I wanted to see him get first crack at the starting shortstop job to begin the season. Personally, I am off the Gabriel Arias train and I don’t really read much of anything into winter league stats (he has hit well in Venezuela this winter). But, it would not surprise me at all to see Arias get the first chance to stick at second base, or to see him make the roster as the utility infielder due to his defensive potential and the lack of options on the still young player (turns 25 in February). Myself, I’d like to find a trade to move on and let Freeman and/or Daniel Schneemann back up shortstop. But, I’m trying to be realistic about what is likely to happen.

The People’s Champ: Juan Brito

The most exciting option for the Guardians from what is available internally would be if Juan Brito would win the job at second base as a 23 and a half year old. One thing I like to do with prospects is compare their full seasons at Double-A, which tends to be when their professional hitting profiles begin to stablize. In the past five years, only three hitters 21 years or younger have had a 125 or more wRC+, a swinging strike percentage of less than 9%, a fly-ball rate over 40% and a pull rate over 50% at AA: Spencer Torkelson, Isaac Parades, and Juan Brito. In a full season at Triple-A, Brito saw some slight declines, predictably, as he adjusted to the pitching improvement but still ended up with a 113 wRC+, a swinging strike percentage of 9.2%, a fly ball rate of 38.8% and a pull rate of 47%. Interestingly enough, Brito’s contact rate went UP 10%at Triple-A while his batting average on balls in play took a hit from .302 to .280. He also had a horrific start to the season, so I think it’s fair to assume the 113 wRC+ he achieved overall is a bit lower than his talent level displayed due to luck and a predictable struggle to get going in a chilly April at a new level.

I am a big fan of Brito’s bat. His 15.4/14.1 K/BB% for his minor league career is pretty exciting paired with his ability to pull fly balls. He also has fairly even splits as a switch-hitter (about 10% better against LHP than RHP for his career). He should have a solid offensive floor that I think gives us optimism he will be a 120 wRC+ hitter when established in the big leagues. The main question with Brito (aside from his readiness for the bigs at the beginning of this season) is whether or not he can stick defensively as a second baseman. Defensive stats in the minors are incredibly unreliable, so you’ll have to trust me and, more importantly, other public scouting folks that there are questions about Brito’s range and glovework as a second baseman. He has had around 170 games in the minors at third base, first base and right field to go along with his 315 games at second base and shortstop. Does that split indicate a desire to develop defensive versatility and open up playing time opportunities with a platinum glover ahead of him in the bigs? Or, does it indicate doubts on the Guardians’ part whether or not he is viable as a middle-infielder? Only Cleveland executives can answer that question. In my amateur analysis, his best defensive asset is a good arm, which isn’t a huge benefit at second base. I would really like to see Brito and Rocchio get some significant time together in Spring Training games and let Brito have a real shot at making the team. However, I am also open to the possibility that Brito may actually fit better in left/right field or first base.

Brito will be roughly 23 and a half years old on Opening Day. How often have the Guardians had an Opening Day starter that young in the past 12 years? Twice. Jose Ramirez at shortstop in 2015 at 22 and a half and Andres Gimenez at shortstop in 2021 also at 22 and a half. So, I think it is possible that Brito may make the team, but not common practice with this franchise. Notably, Brito will likely not be a on more than one of the three top prospect lists used to determine if the Guardians get a draft pick if he wins rookie of the year, so that potential incentive to calling him up Opening Day won’t be there, for whatever that is worth.

The Dark Horse: Daniel Schneemann

Through June 30th, 27 year-old rookie Schneemann was a heart-warming late-bloomer story with a 136 wRC+ and 27.5/14.5 K/BB%. Unfortunately, from July 1st to the end of the season, he came back down to earth with a crash with a 73 wRC+ a 33.6/9.9 K/BB%. He doesn’t really pull fly balls at a consistent rate nor does he offer special value defensively. He looks competent/average everywhere (which IS value) except at shortstop where he looks solidly below average.

I cannot get excited about the idea of Schneemann winning a starting job except for the fact that it’s impossible not to root for a 33rd pick to shock the world. I would prefer that Schneemann be a DFA to allow for another major league player to be added to the roster in the next month than that he compete for a starting role, but not because I don’t like him. I enjoy watching him play baseball and I’m glad the team gave him a shot. But, I don’t see a particular reason to think he will be even a replacement level major league player in 2025.

Other Possibilities: Angel Martinez, Jorge Polanco or Brandon Lowe

I truly believe the Guardians see Angel Martinez as an outfielder now, because that’s how they talk about him. I also don’t think he’s particularly defensively viable on the infield anywhere but potentially at first or third. So, I did not spend time analyzing him here, and he will, now, undoubtedly be the team’s starting second baseman because that’s how it goes.

Jorge Polanco is still available in free agency, and given the Guardians were rumored to be in on Gleyber Torres, maybe they will pursue potential conversations with Polanco as a proven veteran option. Polanco had a poor wRC+ of 92 while playing for Seattle (whose home park is where hitters go to die), but his overall wRC+ in the bigs is 109. He’s an interesting defender to evaluate because Defensive Runs saved have him as average at second base (+1 for his career) and Outs Above Average have him as practically unplayable there (-27). I think it’s reasonable to expect the 31 year old switch-hitter to bounce back at the plate (the 115 wRC+ career split vs RHP is also a nice fit for the Guardians suddenly lefty-mashing lineup), but the difference between Gimenez and Polanco in the field is going to be SO jarring, I kind of find it hard to imagine they go in this direction and block a guy like Juan Brito from 2025. Polanco is gonna get a one-year deal so it probably doesn’t affect Travis Bazzana’s timeline if they sign him, but I suppose if the team is really thinking their top pick from 2024 could make the bigs this coming year, they might consider that an opportunity cost as well.

My preferred choice for the offseason would be for Cleveland and Tampa Bay to figure out their annual offseason trade and land 30 year-old Brandon Lowe in Cleveland. He’s solidly below average defensively (-8 DRS and -9 OAA for his career of almost 4,000 innings there) but his career 126 wRC+ would make that easy to forgive, especially considering that includes around 140 wRC+ against RHP. He has a club option for 2026, so the timeline matches up well with Bazzana. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay probably likes Lowe just as much as I do and trading for him is gonna cost something we will all probably regret. Lowe has had a lot of injury issues in his career, but I think that the Guardians could sit him vs LHP to give someone like Freeman or Brito regular at-bats there and help mitigate that.

Bottom Line:

My prediction is that Tyler Freeman will open 2025 as the Guardians’ starting second baseman, with Gabriel Arias as the utility infielder. I think the team will be aggressive in promoting Brito by the beginning of May if things aren’t working out, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them give Brito some more right field at-bats in May if Freeman actually finally reaches his potential. If a Brandon Lowe trade isn’t in the offing, I would greatly prefer to just hand Brito the reigns on Opening Day and have him and Rocchio develop chemistry and let Kai Correa fix Brito’s defensive issues as much as possible. But, between Freeman, Arias and Schneemann, put me firmly in the Ty Guys camp.