Free Agent Profile: Andrew Chafin, RP

Andrew Chafin, RP

Position: RP  B/T: R/L

Age: 34 (06/17/1990)

2024 Traditional Stats: 62 G, 56 1/3 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.473 WHIP, 4-3, 70 SO, 31 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 116 ERA+, 28.5 K%, 12.6 BB%, 3.59 xERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 0.4 fWAR

Rundown

Andrew Chafin has long been a rumored Mets target, and for good reason. The 34-year-old has cemented his status as one of baseball’s premier, and most reliable, left-handed relievers dating back to his initial tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the start of his career.

The No. 43 overall pick out of Kent State University in 2011, Chafin was a starter in Arizona’s system up through his call-up to the majors in 2014, when he made three outings in that role. He transitioned to the bullpen during the 2015 campaign and flourished, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 3.35 FIP and 58 strikeouts over 75 innings. The southpaw saw his numbers decline in 2016 with a 6.75 ERA across 32 appearances (22 2/3 frames), though he quickly bounced back by brandishing a 3.46 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 225 contests from 2017 to 2019.

Chafin was dealt to the Chicago Cubs in the middle of the 2020 season and would later become a hot commodity at the 2021 deadline after sporting a dazzling 2.06 ERA over 39 1/3 innings that season. The Oakland Athletics made the winning offer for his services, and while the club failed to reach the playoffs, he remained at the top of his game with a 1.53 ERA in 29 1/3 frames.

The Detroit Tigers rewarded Chafin’s efforts once he reached free agency with a two-year deal, which included an opt-out after the first season, worth $13 million in March 2022. He put up a 2.83 ERA that year before declining his player option and bolting for the D-Backs on a one-year pact in 2023. Back where it all started, Chafin recorded a modest 4.19 ERA while his FIP sat at 3.11 in 34 1/3 innings. The Milwaukee Brewers would go on to acquire him at the deadline, and it all came crumbling down as he was responsible for an unsightly 5.82 ERA across 17 innings.

Chafin then returned to Detroit for the 2024 season on a one-year contract with a club option for $6.5 million in 2025. He was productive to the tune of a 3.16 ERA over 37 frames, and while the Tigers went on a miracle-esque run to the postseason, they were on the periphery of the race at the time of the deadline and sent him to the Texas Rangers for pitching prospects Chase Lee and Joseph Montalvo.

There, Chafin finished with a 4.19 ERA in 19 1/3 innings and had his option rejected, causing him to hit the open market for a fourth-consecutive offseason.

While he is a soft-tosser, averaging 91.7 miles per hour on his sinker and four-seam fastball, Chafin misses bats at an elite rate. He finished 2024 with chase and whiff percentages of 35.1 and 34.5, respectively, while punching out 11.18 hitters per nine innings.

Chafin’s slider is his go-to weapon, as he throws it 45.8% of the time. The offering limited batters to a .127 average and .186 slugging percentage last season while generating a whiff rate of 54.7%.

Any concerns with his profile would come due to the fact that his ground-ball rate, which currently sits at 48.1% for his career, has dropped below 40% each of the past two years. That won’t sound any alarms quite yet given that Chafin is a sinker-baller who doesn’t allow much hard contact, but it bears watching moving forward.

He also has a combined walks per nine rate of 4.9 in that same stretch after that number landed at 2.7 over 2021 and 2022, which is drastic enough of a downward shift to raise some eyebrows.

Contract

The reliever market is rather saturated, but Chafin should still make out pretty well. While Texas opted not to pay him $6.5 million for next season, he’s shown that there’s still enough gas in the tank in order to command a pay day that’s not too far off from that amount. A one-year contract in the $4 – $6 million range, similar to his prior agreements, feels like a plausible outcome in this case.

Recommendation

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has been somewhat hesitant to hand out guaranteed deals to relievers in free agency, but that area of the roster is in clear need of a few proven arms, especially of the left-handed variety. Danny Young is the only real threat to crack the Opening Day roster among players who fit that criteria at the moment, with recent minor league signee Brandon Waddell perhaps representing the team’s second-best option.

Thus, it makes all the sense in the world for New York to pursue Chafin. Dependable pitchers with long track records don’t grow on trees, and the Mets should pounce on the opportunity to bring him in as they look to make another trip to the postseason.

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