Free Agent Profile: Luis Severino, SP

Luis Severino, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (2/20/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 182 IP, 161 SO, 60 BB, 31 GS
2024 Advanced Stats: 1.6 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR, 101 ERA+, 4.21 FIP, .283 BABIP, 21.2 SO%, 7.9 BB%

Rundown

What a difference a year makes. Last offseason, it was fair to wonder if Luis Severino had anything left after posting a 6.65 ERA over 89.1 innings with the Yankees. He pitched so well with the Mets in 2024 that it made sense for him to reject a one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer this week in the hopes of earning a better contract.

Severino’s 11 wins, 161 strikeouts, 31 starts, and 2.1 fWAR were all his best numbers since 2018, when he made the All-Star team, won 19 games, and accumulated 5.4 fWAR. Injuries and ineffectiveness plagued him in the years that followed. From 2019 to 2021, he threw a total of 18 innings, thanks in large part to Tommy John surgery.

Moving from the Bronx to Queens agreed with him.

“For me, getting here, getting to know everybody, this is definitely just a little bit, I would say, more calm when you come here,” he said in July. “I don’t know if it’s because nobody is expecting us to win this year, if there’s a little bit less pressure for us.”

Along with the change in scenery, he changed his pitch mix, throwing 35 percent fastballs compared to 45 percent a year prior. He didn’t use his cutter (down to 8 percent from 15) or his changeup (down to 7 percent from 18) as much either. He relied on his sinker (25 percent, up from 3!) a lot more and his slider (up 5 percent to 24).

Sevy improved a ton from a season ago, but didn’t reach the heights he did in his best years when he fanned 230 and 220 batters in back-to-back seasons (2017-2018).

He was a good, fun clubhouse presence, too. He was “in charge” of the OMG sign when he wasn’t pitching. He told reporters the biggest difference between the Mets and Yankees was “having a beard.” When former Yankees teammates ribbed him in a group chat about being “afraid” to face them because his turn in the rotation didn’t come up in the Subway Series, he shot back and made headlines.

“I said, ‘I’m not afraid of you guys. Right now, you only have two good hitters. I can walk those two guys,'” he said. “It’s always friendly competition with players I’ve already played with. It’s going to be fun, and hopefully in the future I can face them.”

Contract

The Mets signed Sevy to a one-year, $13 million deal last year, hoping for a rebound, and they got it. Having rejected the qualifying offer, he will test free agency. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a three-year, $51 million deal and The Athletic projected about the same (three years, $50 million).

Recommendation

The Mets’ top priority for the rotation should be an ace, but they also need a dependable mid-rotation starter or two. Severino would fit the bill. The Athletic rates him as the 11th-best free-agent starting pitcher available. It is encouraging that he was able to put together a good season while striking out far fewer hitters.

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