Free Agent Profile: Yusei Kikuchi, SP

Yusei Kikuchi, SP

Position: SP B/T: L/L

Age: 33 (6/17/1991)

2024 Traditional Stats: 9-10, 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 175.2 IP, 206 SO, 44 BB, 32 GS

2024 Advanced Stats: 1.4 bWAR, 3.5 fWAR, 99 ERA+, 28 SO%, 6 BB%, 3.75 xERA, 3.46 FIP, 3.20 xFIP

Rundown

A six-year veteran, Yusei Kikuchi set career-bests in strikeouts, innings pitched, and WHIP in 2024 and excelled for the Astros (5-1, 2.70 ERA) after getting traded from Toronto at the deadline. Houston went 9-1 in his 10 starts on its way to clinching the American League West.

Prior to the trade, he was having a rough go (4-9, 4.75 ERA, 22 starts) with the Blue Jays. He throws a fastball (average 95 mph), curve, slider, and changeup. He was tougher on left-handed hitters in 2024, holding them to a .639 OPS.

Kikuchi was posted by the Saitama Seibu Lions in the 2018-19 offseason, then signed with the Mariners and on March 21, 2019. He scuffled in Seattle over four years, going 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA over 70 starts, though he did parlay an excellent 2021 first half (6-4, 3.48 ERA) into an All-Star selection.

The struggles continued in 2022 (5.19 ERA) after he signed with Toronto as a free agent, but he turned it around in 2023, going 11-6 with a career-best 3.86 ERA over 32 starts before the split success he had in 2024 after being dealt to Houston.

It sounds as though the Astros would be interested in bringing him back, but it isn’t a top priority. “Yusei had a really good run with us and as I said before we aren’t taking any options off the table to improve this club,” Astros general manager Dana Brown said after the season. “We knew how special he was when he pitched here and how receptive he was, but the fact that we do have a lot of those guys coming back, our rotation is going to be pretty stacked.”

Contract

The Athletic and MLB Trade rumors both have very similar contract projections for Kikuchi. The Athletic projects a three-year, $63 million contract while MLB Trade Rumors predicts three-years for $60 million.

That projected roughly $20 million annual average value would check in at No. 19 among starting pitchers, as of 2024. That type of money represents a low-end No. 2 starter or high-end No. 3.

Recommendation

Om the surface, a longer-term deal to a 33-year-old pitcher who has been very inconsistent since coming to North America is very risky. Especially at the predicted dollar amount. However, it is not secret the Mets need to rebuild most of their rotation.

If the Mets miss on the top starting pitchers on the free agent market, can’t swing a trade and/or bring back Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, then Kikuchi could make sense. He has steadily improved each year in the majors, with his last two, and specifically with tenure with the Astros being his best. If the Mets go the Kikuchi route, they would surely hope they’re getting the 2023 and 2024 versions of the import, and no the inconsistent pitcher he was his first few seasons in North America.

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