An internal pitching prospect could play big role for 2025 Guardians

A lefty arm who dominated Double-A could be a name to watch

We all saw the FanGraphs piece released this past week breaking down the offseason power rankings ahead of the 2025 season, and a lot of questions were raised about why the Guardians, coming off a division title and ALCS appearance, were ranked 22nd. To me, the answer is very easy. It’s starting pitching. For starters, these projections are fueled by strictly Steamer projections. The article states that ZiPS projections will be added later in the offseason.

Secondly, and most importantly, it highlights the most glaring need that this team has had in an offseason in my lifetime: there is no starting pitching to be found on the major league level for the Guardians right now. The columns are broken down between projected batter WAR and projected pitcher WAR. Cleveland ranked 7th in projected batter WAR and had the fourth-best mark in the American League. However, on the pitching side of things, their projected WAR ranked 25th, better than only the Rockies, Athletics, Nationals, Angels, and White Sox. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep. The obvious reasons are this is a projection where Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb are free agents. There simply aren’t enough arms on this roster to make a viable projection. This also means there are massive holes to fill, and they can’t turn to free agency to fill them all.

When faced with a pitching problem, the Guardians have always been able to look inward. I’ve touched on where they need to address the pitching the heaviest, but outside of making real offers to bring back Bieber, Boyd, and/or Cobb, there’s a rest of rotation to fill out. It starts with Tanner Bibee and most likely Ben Lively, and despite a rocky 2024, Gavin Williams will be there as well. From there though, it’s bleak. Joey Cantillo is an option, and while he flashed on occasion in his rookie season, it was very up and down as he struggled throwing strikes.

From there, however, the other arms we saw last season don’t really feel feasible in making meaningful impacts on the 2025 team. Logan Allen’s stuff took a major step backward, and right-handed hitters had an OPS over .900 against him. In fact, of the 140 pitchers who threw at least 90 innings in 2024, Logan Allen’s 71 ERA+ was the fourth worst mark behind only Kenta Maeda, Kyle Hendricks, and Jordan Montgomery. Simply put, he isn’t a solution in the short or long term. Then there’s Triston McKenzie. Between battling through injury and confidence struggles to having a full mechanical breakdown, McKenzie, two years removed from a sub-3 ERA, walked more batters in his 75.2 innings than he did in 191.1 innings in 2022. He’s gone from being seen as a staple to the rotation of the future to being seen as a future non-tender.

So, who can help? Allen and McKenzie finished their seasons in Triple-A, but are there arms down there that are capable of making a difference for this team? I believe there is one.

Parker Messick went from a fringe top 20 prospect to a legitimate top 10 guy in the Cleveland system for me. He was promoted to Double-A Akron in 2024, and in 14 appearances, Messick dominated. Posting an absurd 35.9% whiff rate to go with a 2.06 ERA, Messick is a strike thrower capable of inducing whiffs with a good four-pitch mix. Messick’s changeup is his calling card. It’s a legitimate 60-grade pitch that gets a ton of swings and misses, and it helps his fastball play up as well.

Messick doesn’t have elite velocity. He will sit 90-92 with the ability to flash 94-95 every once in a while. His fastball isn’t going to blow anyone away, but its VAA numbers show a flatter fastball that plays well off of his changeup to induce more swing and miss than expected. I believe his flatter approach angle on his four-seamer will play up at the major league level, and it coupled with his cambio will make an early splash. His breaking stuff is in more of a strike stealing spot right now than it is whiff-inducing, but there was also improvement on that front in 2024 as well.

Despite Messick never throwing a pitch above the Double-A level, I’m more bullish on him than almost anyone else in Cleveland’s system because of his fastball. He’s a strike throwing machine with great metrics on the pitch. In college, Messick was running a induced vertical break (iVB) around 18 inches in college at a 5.4 foot release height. Of course a ball difference may drop that iVB a touch, but the flat angle with Messick’s release height has made it an offering that plays up to either handedness of batter. His slider has progressed more than his curveball, and he’s done very well in mixing and matching his arsenal based on handedness of batter. Messick is always in attack mode, and when combined with his impressive command, he walks very few batters.

I find Messick a fascinating arm that we could very well see at the midway point of 2025.