The Game 6 Pitching Matchup; Manaea Versus The Dodgers’ Bullpen

It is another do-or-die game for the New York Mets on Sunday. In hopes to extending the National League Championship Series to a Game 7 in Los Angeles, the Mets will have to work some more of their magic and get another victory against the league’s best. In the potential decisive Game 6 matchup, who will each team go to on the mound?

Sean Manaea

Where would the Mets be if it wasn’t for the emergence of their ace, Sean Manaea? Well, they likely would not be in the NLCS. Manaea and his reworked delivery has been lights out for the Mets for months now, and that has not changed in the playoffs.

After his terrific regular season, where he posted a 12-6 record and 184 strikeouts to go along with a 3.47 ERA, Manaea has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his three postseason starts. This includes a Game 2 start in Los Angeles where he allowed two earned runs and struck out five over five innings of work. In Game 6, Manaea will certainly want to decrease the walks (four in Game 2), which will help him give the Mets more length. However, if he replicates most of the other characteristics of that Game 2 start, the Mets should be in a great spot to force a Game 7.

In that Game 2 matchup, Manaea relied mainly on his sinker, which he threw 62% of the time. He then mixed in his sweeper (23% of the time) and changeup (15% of the time) to try to finish off at-bats. As has been the Dodgers’ philosophy all season, they interestingly, despite Manaea’s success, did not chase all that much, only swinging at pitches out of the zone 28% of the time (below the 28.5% league average). Instead, Manaea relied on whiffs (30% whiff rate; league average is 25.3%) and soft contact (only four hard-hit ball allowed) to get outs.

All this is encouraging for Manaea, as despite still walking four, he was able to get Dodgers hitters out without relying on the need to get the opposition to chase. As has been well documented, the Dodgers’ hitters simply do not chase many pitches out of the strike zone (second-lowest chase rate in the majors). As Jose Quintana unfortunately experienced in Game 4, pitchers who make a living on not throwing pitches in the zone, and need to induce chases to win, struggle mightily against the Dodgers. That is not how Manaea needs to work to be successful.

Despite Manaea’s distinct reverse splits this season (.585 OPS and .190 batting average against right-handed hitters and .738 OPS against left-handed hitters), he took care of Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, making him look silly in two at-bats, culminating in two strikeouts. Manea also handled the left-handed hitting Freddie Freeman, holding him hitless. As for the right-handed hitters, which is the side Manaea has dominated overall this year, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández were both held without a hit as well. Max Muncy was really the only Dodger, a left-handed hitter, who did damage against Manaea, stroking a home run.

It’ll be interesting to see what adjustments the Dodgers’ big bats, all of which struggled against Manaea make, in Game 6. Overall, on the season, the Dodgers are used to abusing left-handed pitching, ranking first with a staggering 121 wRC+. Hopefully, that season-long sample does not rear its head on Sunday and Manaea is able to make another quality start and lead his team to a Game 7.

The Bullpen

For a second game this series, the Dodgers will resort to a bullpen game. They used the same approach in Game 2, opposing Manaea, and it resulted in a 7-3 Mets victory. Los Angeles will hope that the strategy reflects close to what it did in Game 4 against the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series. In that game, the Dodger bullpen worked nine scoreless innings en route to a 8-0 victory.

The distinct difference between the two bullpen games was in the Game 4 success against the Padres, no pitcher tossed more than 1 2/3 innings. However, in the Game 2 loss to the Mets, the Dodgers were planning on using pitcher Landon Knack as a bulk man, beginning in the second inning, however, he got lit up for five hits and five runs, shortening his day and soiling the Dodgers’ plan.

With that being said, it will be interesting to see if manger Dave Roberts goes back to the successful approach used in the NLDS, rather then rely on any single true “bulk man,” as he did in the Game 2 loss to the Mets. Another potential difference from the NLDS that may make that difficult is the absence of left-handed reliever Alex Vesia, who tossed 1 2/3 scoreless in the NLDS, and was left off the NLCS roster due to injury. Additionally, the Dodgers used reliever Brent Honeywell Jr. for 4 2/3 innings in Game 5, so one would assume he would not be available. Would these two variables force Roberts to once again rely on Knack for some bulk; the same pitcher the Mets got for five runs and five hard-hit balls across two innings?

Regardless of who pitches and when, the Mets should expect to see all right-handed pitchers except when Roberts choses to deploy reliever Anthony Banda. This means manager Carlos Mendoza can build his lineup as if he is facing a right-handed starter, unless of course if Banda were to start. On the season, the Mets are decisively better against left-handed pitching (105 wRC+ against lefties and a 115 wRC+ against righties).

Final Thoughts 

On paper, the pitching matchup in this one should favor New York. However, paper is just paper and the Dodgers own the most prolific offense in baseball. If the Mets wish to see their season continue, one more big outing by Sean Manaea is a must, and the Mets offense has to take advantage of a Dodgers bullpen they were able to hit around in their Game 2 victory. Regardless of the outcome of the game, it has been a heck of a ride for the Mets who have smashed through any type of preseason expectations.

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