Breaking Down The NLCS Game 3 Pitching Matchup

After a 7-3 bounce-back win Monday night, the New York Mets have tied the series heading into three straight home games at Citi Field against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sean Manaea continued his dominance against a potent Dodger lineup that scored nine runs in game one of the National League Championship Series. He only gave up two earned runs in five innings of work, striking out the odds on the favorite to win National League MVP, Shohei Ohtani, twice.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided to throw a bullpen game on Monday afternoon, during which the Mets saw five different relievers over the course of nine innings. The Mets were able to rough up Landon Knack in the top half of the second inning thanks to a grand slam off the bat of Mark Vientos that blew the game open early. They were able to hold their lead and tie the series heading back to Flushing.

The Mets look to take control in front of the home crowd for Game 3 Wednesday night. Here are the pitching matchups for Game 3…

Luis Severino

Luis Severino has not been as dominant as Sean Manaea or Jose Quintana this postseason. Still, to his credit, he has battled his way through two respectable starts against the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. Severino has a 5.01 ERA in his career during the postseason, where he has seen some nightmare starts with the New York Yankees, but in both of his postseason starts with the Mets, he has managed to pitch six innings with 10 total strikeouts.

Severino has been able to find himself this season with the Mets, relying on his fastball like he did in 2018 and 2022. In 2024, his fastball run value ranks in the 90th percentile among qualified pitchers, and he has been able to put hitters away with his new sweeper. The right-hander uses his sweeper only 17.2% of the time but has a 38.6% Whiff percentage, with hitters batting .139 against the pitch and using it as a put-away pitch 24.3% of the time. To put that in perspective, Severino’s 2023 put-away pitch was his sinker, where he only had a whiff percentage of 20.8%.

Mookie Betts is a lifetime .324 hitter against Severino (11-34) with a home run, four doubles, four runs batted in, and seven strikeouts. The only two other position players with more than 10 at-bats against Severino are Teoscar Hernandez and Kevin Kiermaier, both hitting below .200. Severino, on the other hand, has only two starts against the Dodgers (none this season) and has given up seven runs in six innings of work.

While Severino has been able to restore some dominance this year with a 3.91 ERA in the regular season, he has given up the most home runs on the starting rotation (23) and the second most walks (60). Walks have always killed the Mets starters, but Severino must keep the ball in the park and attack the Dodgers lineup.

Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler is set to start for the Dodgers on Wednesday night after throwing a bullpen game on Monday afternoon. Buehler had a horrendous start against the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, where he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work, but he has a great track record in the postseason, given the bad start. In 16 career postseason starts, Buehler has a 3.40 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 84 2/3 innings pitched.

Buehler has a deep mix relying on seven different pitches, primarily using his sweeper to put away hitters. While he only uses his sweeper 8.2% of the time, it is his best swing and miss pitch with a 29.4% Whiff percentage and 24.5% put away percentage. Even with his seven-pitch arsenal, Buehler uses his fastball 29% of the time, which is where hitters have hurt him. He has surrendered a .342 batting average on that pitch, which correlates with a .321 batting average on the first pitch in an at-bat thrown.

Pete Alonso, a lifetime .357 hitter against Buehler (5-for-14), with four home runs, eight batted in, and one strikeout, has seen Buehler the second most. Jesse Winker, a lifetime .267 hitter against Buehler (4-for-15) with two home runs, three runs batted in, and two strikeouts, has the most experience against Buehler.

The Mets have struggled against starting pitching the entire postseason, thriving when opposing teams are forced to go to their bullpen, but have a unique opportunity to jump on Buehler given his splits with the fastball and first pitch thrown in at-bats.

FINAL THOUGHTS

After tying the series at one apiece, the Mets can again control their destiny with a win on Wednesday night. Luis Severino has a great opportunity in his first postseason start at Citi Field to shut down a Dodger lineup on a cold New York City night. He has shown dominance in front of the Flushing faithful with a 2.96 ERA at home this season.

While getting off to a hot start is always ideal, the Mets must be ultra-aggressive against Buehler. Not only will an aggressive approach lead to success, but the Dodgers are coming off of a bullpen game, and even with a day off, getting to their bullpen will completely change Dave Roberts’s pitching strategy for the rest of the series.

It is pretty simple for the Mets. A win in Game 3 allows you to control your own destiny, with two more games to follow at Citi Field.

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