Mets Need to Treat Tonight Like it’s Game 5

In 1986, the New York Mets were up three games to two on the Houston Astros in the NLCS. The Mets couldn’t be eliminated in Game 6, but it almost felt like they could. If the series reached Game 7, that meant the Astros would be able to throw ex-Met Mike Scott one more time—and the Mets couldn’t hit Mike Scott.

In Game 1, Scott threw a complete game shutout with 14 strikeouts. In Game 4, Scott threw another complete game, this time allowing one run and striking out five. Sure, it was a bit better of a showing, but the Astros still won.

If the Mets lost Game 6, Scott would be in Game 7, which would likely mean the end of the season.

Now, in 2024, the Mets find themselves in a similar situation with another ex-Met looming for a potential do-or-die playoff game. And just like in 1986, the Mets can’t let that happen. The Mets cannot go back to Philly for a do-or-die Game 5.

Yes, a loss in Game 4 does not eliminate the Mets from the playoffs, but they need to do everything they can to finish the job without returning to Citizens Bank Park. The Mets do not want to see Zack Wheeler again.

Wheeler has pitched well against the Mets ever since the Amazins let him walk in free agency and even better this year. In his only regular-season start vs. the Mets in 2024 he went seven innings, allowed just two runs and struck out eight. Yes, the Mets beat him that day, but he was still great and Mets hitters still largely struggled.

In Game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Mets, Wheeler went seven scoreless with nine strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He may have been partially aided by a … generous home plate umpire, but Mets hitters still didn’t touch him. By game score, it was the second-best start of his postseason career, only trailing his 2022 NLCS Game 1 start when he also went seven scoreless. Sure, the Mets beat the Phillies that day as well, but they didn’t beat Wheeler. They beat Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering — not Wheeler.

Wheeler isn’t scuffing the baseball, but he’s dominating the Mets all the same. There’s no reason to expect him not to dominate again in Game 5. Yes, the Mets are 2-0 in games started by Wheeler this year, but they’ve scored a combined two runs off of him in 14 innings. The Mets have somehow escaped with two wins in two tries despite two dominant showings by Philly’s ace. Don’t push the luck. If anything, the Phillies are due to win a Wheeler start.

A do-or-die game in Philadelphia against a reinvigorated Phillies team, who would have just grabbed all the momentum back, and with Wheeler on the mound, is a recipe for disaster. Luckily for the Mets, they have an opportunity to not let that happen.

Another strong start from Jose Quintana is needed; every reliever should be available out of the bullpen. David Peterson, Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett and José Buttó should all be fresh after not being used in Tuesday’s win. Whatever you need to do to win this ballgame, do it. Carlos Mendoza needs to empty the bag of tricks. Play and manage like there is no Game 5.

The Mets have never had a champagne celebration at Citi Field but have the opportunity for one tonight. They need to pop the corks tonight or else they might not be popping them at all.

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