ALDS RECAP: Guardians fall 3-0 in Ninth Inning Collapse

He is human after all...

Losing stinks, but that was just painful.

Tarik Skubal had the Guardians’ number on Monday afternoon, but he found himself in a pitcher’s duel with Matthew Boyd. Boyd was great for Cleveland on Monday in his first career postseason start, tossing 4.2 scoreless innings with five strikeouts. Similar to Saturday, Stephen Vogt went right to Cade Smith and followed with his big guns to get the remaining outs that led to the late game innings.

Unfortunately, the offense couldn’t muster anything against the presumed Cy Young Winner, Skubal, and the game entered the eighth inning tied 0-0. Hunter Gaddis entered for the top of the eighth, and he retired Kerry Carpenter via pop-out and Colt Keith via strikeout. Matt Vierling smoked a two-out double into the left center gap, and an intentional walk to Riley Greene led to Stephen Vogt going to his closer in a tie game with two outs in the eighth.

It was evident right away that Emmanuel Clase didn’t have his A-stuff. If not for a tremendous, game-saving Steven Kwan catch to get the Guardians out of the eighth inning jam, this game enters the ninth inning 1-0 Tigers.

The Guardians went mostly quietly in the ninth with Parker Meadows robbing Kyle Manzardo of extra bases at the wall ending the inning. Clase remained on for the ninth, and six months’ worth of historic relief pitching all imploded in three batters.

Clase struck out Spencer Torkelson and got Parker Meadows to fly out, but back to back singles by Jake Rogers and Trey Sweeney set the table for Clase versus Kerry Carpenter. Carpenter against right-handed pitchers is just about as good as it gets. Of players who saw at least 500 pitches from righties this season, only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, and Bobby Witt Jr. have a better wOBA and wRC+ than Carpenter’s .414 wOBA and 176 wRC+. Emmanuel Clase’s season and career speaks for itself. Suffice to say, it was a tremendous matchup of strength versus strength, and worst case scenario ensued.

As I previously mentioned, Clase just didn’t have his best stuff. His velocity was down early, and he struggled with location. As we look at here, Clase, who has thrived keeping his slider down and below the zone this season, made some really dicey pitches to Carpenter.

The fifth pitch is the worst here location-wise, but it at least was moving how Clase wanted it to with 30 inches of drop and six inches of horizontal break, and Carpenter fouled it off. After going high slider followed by a slider down the middle, Bo Naylor called for another slider despite Clase struggling to find a feel for it for nearly 30 pitches at this point. This one was in an equally bad location, and it flat out did not break, registering just one inch of horizontal movement, and Carpenter did not miss.

It’s the first three-run home run allowed by Emmanuel Clase, ever. A true cement mixer slider, and the best reliever in baseball found himself watching the ball land 10 rows deep, allowing his first earned run and home run since August 30.

It was an absolute backbreaker; the death blow for the Guardians. They went quietly in the bottom half of the ninth, and Detroit walked away with a narrow victory, evening the series at one game apiece.

Much will be made about the home run, but more should be made about the decision making all around with the at-bat to Carpenter. With a base open, the presumed logic would be to work around the righty killer and deal with Matt Vierling. Again, Carpenter’s wOBA against righties is .414. Vierling’s is a solid mark, but it’s nearly 100 points lower at .319 to go with a 109 wRC+, 67 points lower than Carpenter’s. On top of that, Clase had mowed Vierling down with ease just two days prior. Of course there’s no guarantee that Clase would get Vierling out, but having a force at any base with two outs against a much less dangerous hitter seems optimal for a guy without his best stuff.

The second question raised surrounds Bo Naylor and his game calling. Emmanuel Clase possesses a cutter better than anyone else’s, an outlier pitch, if you will. Right-handed batters ran a season average of .195 against it with a .245 wOBA. Lefties fared even worse, hitting just .114 with a .133 wOBA against his cutter. Essentially, if you’re going to test one of the best hitters in baseball against righties, attack him with your best pitch. Carpenter crushes fastballs, but no one possesses a fastball quite like Clase’s cutter, and Naylor abandoned it despite seeing Clase had no feel for his slider all outing, and opted to go with three spinners in a row. It was a truly baffling decision all-around, and in execution, it was exposed.

Cleveland must now bounce back in Detroit with Alex Cobb due to take the hill in Game Three and Tanner Bibee in Game Four. The bullpen will be fully rested. Two wins in Detroit would be ideal so Cleveland doesn’t have to see Tarik Skubal on full rest in Game Five.