Series Preview: Mets to Face Division Rival Phillies in NLDS

The New York Mets are back, playing in the National League Division Series for the first time since 2015. Wow, that sounds great! But, let’s not forget that the Mets were a few minutes away from their season ending at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. That was until Pete Alonso had what is the greatest moment of career, hitting a go-ahead three-run home run in the ninth inning of Game 3. The Mets went on to win 4-2, continuing what has already been a magical run. Their task will get more difficult, as they prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies narrowly won the season series seven to six. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of this playoff series.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Saturday: Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA): To the surprise of most if not all, Senga is back to start Game 1 of this series. There was some optimism that he could return during the postseason but this was a shock. Senga made one start in the regular season, throwing 5 1/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves all the way back on July 26. Wheeler has developed into one of the best postseason performers at his position. In 63 1/3 innings, the right-hander has a 2.42 ERA across 11 appearances. The Mets will have their hands full with Wheeler.
• Sunday: Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (11-9, 3.32 ERA): Severino earned the second postseason win of his career on Tuesday against the Brewers. He struggled at the start, but finished his outing with two straight scoreless innings. Severino made two starts against the Phillies in the regular season, going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings. Sánchez is getting a start in this spot probably with his home/road splits in mind. The left-hander has a 2.21 ERA at home. In comparison, he has a 5.02 ERA on the road. Sánchez pitched well in September, going 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts.
• Tuesday: Aaron Nola (14-8, 3.57 ERA) vs. TBD: Nola had a difficult September, pitching to a 4.91 ERA across six starts. The Phillies hope that his postseason experience will help him overcome some recent struggles. Nola has a total of 28 starts against the Mets in his career. He is 10-9 with a 3.46 ERA in 164 innings against them. The Mets have yet to announce a starter for a Game 3. Sean Manaea would be on an extra day of rest and Jose Quintana would be on normal rest. I have to assume Manaea will get the nod, with a game to be played the following day. He was 6-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 16 starts at Citi Field this season.
• Wednesday: TBD vs. TBD: Neither team has announced a starter for a potential Game 4. For the Phillies, Ranger Suárez would be an option if he is not used out of the bullpen prior to then. As for the Mets, Quintana will be called upon, assuming he does not feature in Game 3.
• Friday: TBD vs. TBD: If this series does go to a Game 5, it is likely that Wheeler will take the ball for the Phillies. The Mets, well they have plenty of options. Senga could start. Severino could pitch on normal rest. Depending on how they are utilized early on, David Peterson and Tylor Megill could be in the mix. All hands will be on deck for both sides in a win-or-go-home scenario.

WHO’S HOT?

Starling Marte (NYM)

After coming up with a few big hits in the Mets’ comeback win against the Atlanta Braves on Monday, Starling Marte had a strong few days in the Wild Card series. The outfielder was three-for-nine with two runs batted, with all of those hits being singles. The final one extended the Mets lead in the ninth inning of Game 3, slapping the ball through a hole on the right side. Marte could be a real difference-maker towards the bottom of the lineup, not only with his bat but his speed as well.

Nick Castellanos (PHI)

Nick Castellanos finished the regular season on a high note. The outfielder brought his best to the table in the month of September, slashing .292/.364/.494/.858 with four doubles, one triple, four home runs, and 13 runs batted in. Castellanos is only hitting .197 in the postseason for his career. That being said, the Mets need to attack him strategically. Cannot afford to let him get going.

PREDICTION

Are the Phillies more talented than the Mets? Yes, but I don’t believe much separates these two teams. Recent history would suggest that a team like the Phillies would struggle in this round. Last year, three teams with over 100 wins lost their first playoff series after getting an extended period off. Two of those teams were swept, the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Dodgers. I don’t expect the same to happen to the Phillies, although the Mets have momentum, and that holds a lot of weight at this time of the year. This magical run for the Mets is far from over. I have them winning this series in four, closing out the Phillies in front of the home crowd on Wednesday.

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