Five Keys to Beating the Phillies in the NLDS

It seems jarring to be playing the Phillies in the National League Division Series less than a week after wondering whether the Diamondbacks lost. How was that just last Sunday?!

The Mets were two outs away from being forced to win Game 162 to make the playoffs when Francisco Lindor hit one of the biggest regular season home runs in Mets history. And then New York was two outs from elimination when Pete Alonso hit one of the biggest postseason home runs in club history.

In other news this week, a teaser was released of the “OMG” remix and Alonso and his wife found time to pumpkin pick at a farm outside of Milwaukee. He declared his find the “playoff pumpkin” and the 2024 Mets have one more thing to rally around.

So Pete picked a playoff pumpkin. It’s a shame David Peterson didn’t join him. Pete and Peterson picking a pair of playoff pumpkins while planning and plotting to pick off the Philadelphia Phillies would be pleasing. But it will take more than a lucky fruit to beat the National League East champs. Here are the five keys to beating the Phillies.

Lineup Magic

Carlos Mendoza loves to toy with his batting orders and he’s gotten great results, most famously moving Lindor to leadoff in May to help spark his excellent season. He had Alonso hitting fifth for two games in Milwaukee before batting him cleanup in Game 3, which turned out to be a stroke of genius. The Phillies feature two righties and two lefties in their starting rotation so expect Mendoza to tinker with match-ups all series. One thing to look for: the OPS of right-handed hitters against Game 1 starter Zack Wheeler was .434 this season. Mendoza may move his lefties up for the series opener.

Middle Relief

If it weren’t for Alonso’s signature moment, Phil Maton and José Buttó might have been the goats of the Milwaukee series. Maton gave up two homers in Game 2 and Buttó did the same in Game 3. Can they bounce back? Do they still have Mendoza’s trust? Or does he look elsewhere for a bridge to Edwin Díaz?

Stop the Running Game

The Brewers were 5-for-5 stealing bases in Game 3. The Phillies don’t run as much as Milwaukee, but they were fourth in the National League with 148 stolen bases. Bryson Stott (32 stolen bases), Johan Rojas (25), Trea Turner (19) and Brandon Marsh (19) are all threats.

Ace in the Hole

In a stunner, Mendoza said Friday that Kodai Senga will start Game 1. Will he be used as an opener or as a typical starter? Senga isn’t showing the Mets’ hand. “I’m ready for whatever,” he told reporters through a Japanese interpreter. “If they say 10 pitches, I’m all in for 10 pitches. If they say 200, I’m in for 200.”

If the NLDS goes five games, there are six days between Game 1 and 5, meaning Senga could start twice. In two starts vs. the Phillies in 2023, he was 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA. He struck out 15 and walked three in 12.1 innings. A healthy Senga would be a huge boost.

Ignore the Critics

Nearly seven months ago during spring training, Lindor said that while the 2023 October runs to the World Series of Arizona and Texas came as a surprise to many, he bet that the players on those teams expected to win. And he thought the Mets would surprise despite coming off a disappointing 75-win season.

“It’s not about the expectations outside,” he said on February 15. “It’s what you believe and what you think you can do.”

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