American League Division Series Preview: Tigers vs. Guardians

We meet again

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will meet in the American League Division series on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the players and matchups that will decide the fate of these American League Central Division rivals.

The Detroit Tigers went 86-76 with +40 run differential. However, the Tigers’ season was definitely a tale of two halves, as on July 31st, after selling off their second-best starter, Jack Flaherty, they were only 52-57. They proceeded to go 34-19 and race past the Minnesota Twins for a wildcard spot and then slayed the American League giant Houston Astros in two games in the Wildcard series. They are not the same team Cleveland won 7 of 13 games against earlier in the season. They were 21st in MLB at 95 wRC+, ninth in baserunning runs above average at 5.3, fourth in defensive fWAR at 12.1, eighth highest in strikeout rate, since the trade deadline fourth in MLB in FIP at 3.54, and eighth in reliever FIP in the same time at 3.44.

The Cleveland Guardians went 92-69 with a +87 run differential, winning the American League Central division and securing the number two seed in the American League and a first-round bye. They were 16th in MLB at 100 wRC+, 17th in baserunning runs above average at -1, third in defensive fWAR at 12.7, sixth lowest in strikeout rate, since the trade deadline 18th in MLB in FIP at 4.27, and sixth in reliever FIP in the same time at 3.38.

Now, I want to get familiar with the respective rosters of these two teams. We won’t know their final form until Saturday morning, so these are projections based on the information currently at hand.

Thirteen Position Players I’m Confident Will Be On the Guardians’ Roster (wRC+ = weighted runs created without ballpark effects, 100 is league average):

Bo Naylor, LHH C - 74 wRC+, 31.4/7.5 K/BB%

Austin Hedges, RHH C - 20 wRC+, 34.2/4.1 K/BB%

Josh Naylor, LHH 1B - 118 wRC+, 16.6/9.2 K/BB%

Kyle Manzardo, LHH DH/1B - 98 wRC+, 26.3/5.8 K/BB% (104 wRC+ vs. RHP overall but 147 wRC+ vs. RHP since returning to the big leagues on September 1st)

David Fry, RHH DH/1B - 129 wRC+, 21.4/10.7 K/BB% (179 wRC+ vs LHP)

Andres Gimenez, LHH 2B - 83 wRC+, 15.3/4.1 K/BB%

Jose Ramirez, SH 3B - 141 wRC+, 12/7.9 K/BB%

Brayan Rocchio, SH SS - 79 wRC+, 20.4/10 K/BB%

Daniel Schneemann, LHH UIF - 93 wRC+, 31.7/11.3 K/BB%

Steven Kwan, LHH LF - 131 wRC+, 9.4/9.8 K/BB%

Lane Thomas, RHH CF - 99 wRC+, 25.9/8.3 K/BB% (119 wRC+ vs LHP)

Will Brennan, LHH RF - 98 wRC+, 13.6/5.4 K/BB% (109 wRC+ vs. RHP)

Jhonkensy Noel, RHH RF - 118 wRC+, 31.8/6.6 K/BB% (165 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Likely Lineup vs. RHP

1. Kwan LF

2. Manzardo DH

3. Jose 3B

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. Brennan RF

6. Thomas CF

7. Gimenez 2B

8. Bo Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Likely Lineup vs. LHP

1. Kwan LF

2. Thomas CF

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. Fry DH

6. Noel RF

7. Gimenez 2B

8. Naylor C

9. Rocchio SS

Twelve Pitchers I’m Confident Will Be On the Guardians’ Roster: (FIP = ERA independent of the quality of a pitcher’s defense, SIERA = accounting for the weight of strikeouts, walks and contact quality to create an expected ERA)

Game One Starter: Tanner Bibee, RHP - 3.56 FIP, 3.58 SIERA, 26.3/6.2 K/BB%

Probable Game Two Starter: Matthew Boyd, LHP - 3.29 FIP, 3.65 SIERA, 27.7/7.8 K/BB%

Probable Game Three Starter: Alex Cobb, RHP - 3.29 FIP, 3.87 SIERA, 16.1/4.8 K/BB%

Gavin Williams, RHP - 3.67 FIP, 4.19 SIERA, 23.8/9.6 K/BB%

Pedro Avila, RHP - 3.76 FIP, 3.85 SIERA, 23/9.4 K/BB%

Eli Morgan, RHP - 3.64 FIP, 4.08 SIERA, 20.4/6.6 K/BB%

Andrew Walters, RHP - 3.52 FIP, 5.81 SIERA, 18.8/15.6 K/BB%

Erik Sabrowski, LHP - 1.11 FIP, 2.15 SIERA, 40.4/8.5 K/BB%

Tim Herrin, LHP - 2.86 FIP, 3.45 SIERA, 26.5/9.7 K/BB%

Hunter Gaddis, RHP - 3.38 SIERA, 23.7/5 K/BB%

Cade Smith, RHP - 1.40 FIP, 2.16 SIERA, 35.6/5,9 K/BB%

Emmanuel Clase, RHP - 2.22 FIP, 2.64 SIERA, 24.4/3.7 K/BB%

That leaves one spot left and I’m unsure if it’ll be filled by Nick Sandlin, Ben Lively, Joey Cantillo, Myles Straw or Angel Martinez. Regardless, whichever of that bunch who is chosen should not make a dramatic impact on the outcome of games. I actually suspect it will be Straw so he can pinch-run for Bo Naylor, Josh Naylor, or Kyle Manzardo late in games and play centerfield in the bottom of the ninth when needed. I would be fine with Angel Martinez, myself, who offers some baserunning speed and has a 112 wRC+ against LHP in the bigs.

Tigers’ Likely Roster:

Fourteen Position Players Likely to Be on the Roster:

Jake Rogers, RHH C - 71 wRC+, 29.4/6.5 K/BB%

Dillon Dingler, RHH C - 37 wRC+, 34.5/3.4 K/BB%

Spencer Torkelson, LHH 1B - 92 wRC+, 27.6/8.7 K/BB% (122 wRC+ vs LHP)

Colt Keith, RHH 2B - 97 wRC+, 19.8/6.5 K/BB% (110 wRC+ vs LHP)

Andy Ibanez, RHH 2B/3B - 87 wRC+, 25.8/6.1 K/BB% (130 wRC+ vs LHP)

Jace Jung, LHH 3B - 102 wRC+, 30.9/16 K/BB% (121 wRC+ vs LHP)

Trey Sweeney, LHH SS - 81 wRC+, 26.9/5.9 K/BB% (122 wRC+ vs LHP)

Zack McKinstry, LHH UIF - 75 wRC+, 21.2/7.4 K/BB%

Matt Vierling, RHH 3B/OF - 108 wRC+, 21.3/7.2 K/BB%

Parker Meadows, LHH LF - 111 wRC+, 25.5/8.4 K/BB%

Riley Greene, LHH CF - 135 wRC+, 26.7/11 K/BB% (149 wRC+ vs RHP)

Kerry Carpenter, LHH RF - 160 wRC+, 25.3/7..4 K/BB% (176 wRC+ vs RHP)

Wenceel Perez, SH RF - 95 wRC+, 21.6/7.6 K/BB% (101 wRC+ vs RHP)

Justyn-Henry Malloy, RHH OF - 89, 37/10 K/BB% (155 wRC+ vs LHP)

Twelve Pitchers Likely to Be on the Roster:

Game One Starter: Reese Olson, RHP - 3.17 FIP, 3.93 SIERA, 21.7/7.1 K/BB%

Game Two Starter: Tarik Skubal, LHP - 2.49 FIP, 2.89 SIERA, 30.3/4.6 K/BB%

Probable Game Three Starter: Casey Mize, RHP - 3.95 FIP, 4.33 SIERA, 17.3/6.4 K/BB%

Beau Brieske, RHP - 3.51 FIP, 4.00 SIERA, 24.5/10.6 K/BB%

Jason Foley, RHP - 3.82 FIP, 4.09 SIERA, 18.4/8 K/BB%

Sean Guenther, LHP - 2.60 FIP, 3.24 SIERA, 16.4/2.7 K/BB%

Brenan Hanifee, RHP - 3.10 FIP, 3.52 SIERA, 19.2/5 K/BB%

Tyler Holton, LHP - 3.17 FIP, 3.48 SIERA, 21.8/4.8 K/BB%

Brant Hurter, LHP - 3.03 FIP, 3.19 SIERA, 21.7/3.4 K/BB%

Jackson Jobe, RHP - 2.92 FIP, 4.85 SIERA, 12.5/6.3 K/BB%

Ty Madden, RHP - 3.99 FIP, 4.52 SIERA, 16.8/7.9 K/BB%

Will Vest, RHP - 2.83 FIP, 3.43 SIERA, 21.8/6.2 K/BB%

Likely Lineup vs. RHP

1. Meadows CF

2. Carpenter DH

3. Vierling RF

4. Greene LF

5. Keith 2B

6. Torkelson 1B

7. McKinstry 3B

8. Sweeney SS

9. Rogers C

Likely Lineup vs. LHP

1. Vierling 3B

2. Malloy DH

3. Greene LF

4. Ibanez 2B

5. Perez RF

6. Torkelson 1B

7. Meadows CF

8. Rogers C

9. Sweeney SS

Analysis:

Both the Guardians and Tigers struggle offensively and will try to leverage their best platoon bats to take advantage of getting the most possible AB’s against whatever handed pitcher they hit best. If I were the Guardians, I’d say, “Don’t let Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter beat me.” If I were the Tigers, I’d say, “Don’t let Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan beat me.” Make sure your plan of attack focuses on making those guys hit your pitches. If they want to take a walk and get on base, that’s fine. Deal with the other seven guys in the lineup.

The Tigers’ bullpen has been on absolute heater over the past two months, but I think it’s fair to question if it’s sustainable. They definitely have some great arms, but none of them seem particularly untouchable (aside from the likely Cy Young Winner Skubal in the rotation, of course). However, manager AJ Hinch is incredibly adept at getting his pitchers in the best possible situation to succeed and having an early hook when needed. I think Stephen Vogt has displayed the same skills this season with his pen, and I hope that continues. This is not the time to let a guy work through something. Don’t put yourself behind an eight-ball; grab a struggling arm quickly and let them (and your team) live to fight another day. The only additional factor to consider is that the more a team sees a pitcher in a short amount of time, the more effective they typically become against that pitcher. So, I think whichever of Hinch and Vogt is best able to leverage the ENTIRE strength of their bullpen and the individual stars of the pen will give their team the best chance to win.

A big X-factor in this series will be the availability and sharpness of Alex Cobb for Cleveland. If Cobb is healthy and able to give the Guardians his usual 4-5 innings of steady groundballs off the bats of opposing pitchers, I like the Guardians’ chances of finding a way to take three games in this series. If the Guardians are forced, instead, to rely on some combination of Ben Lively, Joey Cantillo and Gavin Williams, I am less optimistic about their chances overall.

Something to watch would be the Guardians struggles with the breaking ball as the team is -19.8 runs below average against sliders/sweepers and -1.8 runs below average against curveballs. Cleveland also struggles with fastballs with good downward vertical movement, as they are -19.2 runs against sinkers and -1.8 runs against splitters. Finally, Cleveland has been the worst team in MLB against cutters at -17.8 runs below average. Holton, Skubal and Olson all have excellent sinkers, Foley has a great slider, and Holton has a great cutter. So, you can see that this matchup isn’t overwhelming, but the Guardians need to be patient and take borderline sinkers, not expanding the zone.

Ramirez, Bo Naylor and Fry have been the best Guardians hitters against sinkers, so I would like to see Fry get a start against Olson in game one (giving the rookie Manzardo a chance to come off the bench). Kwan has been the only Guardian above average against cutters, so we’ve got to hope that the good splits Ramirez, Thomas, Fry and Noel have had against lefties will be more important than their struggles against cutters, because Holton was made in a lab to get Guardians’ hitters out.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are -21.4 runs below average against fastballs and the worst in MLB against sinkers at -39.6. The first number is a good reminder as to why Sabrowski and Walters, both of whom have excellent fastballs, should make the roster. Also, there should be a steady diet of Cade Smith in every game for the Tigers, and Matthew Boyd’s increased reliance on his sinker with the Guardians should continue, with Cobb’s splitter-sinker combination also seeming like it will play well against the Detroit lineup. Carpenter, Greene, Keith and Meadows have been good against fastballs, so, again, these are hitters not to let beat you. Greene and Carpenter are the only Tigers who handle sinkers well. Give Greene and Carpenter sliders and curves as much as possible!

You’re going to recognize a lot of the good qualities about the Tigers because they are strengths for Cleveland as well. Both teams play great defense, try to take extra bases on the basepaths and both have amazing bullpens. I think the series will come down to whether Cleveland’s hitting, which is superior on paper, can be more of a factor than the Tigers starting pitching, which is clearly superior on paper. As Guardians’ fans, we can hope that playing at home for three of the potential five games in the series will give Cleveland an advantage in what should be a close, hard-fought battle to get to the American League Championship series.

I hope everyone reading this enjoys the American League Division Series. With all the analysis done, it’s time to see what unlikely heroes emerge and who unexpectedly falters in a big moment. I think it’s always important to remember that anything can happen in three to five games in MLB, so I hope Detroit and Cleveland fans aren’t too harsh on their players regardless of what happens, and remember that both teams have had magical seasons in their own way and nothing that happens in the next week can take that away.

Let’s go, Guardians!