Breaking Down How the Mets Can Make the 2024 Playoffs

The New York Mets enter Friday tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second National League Wild Card and one game ahead of the Atlanta Braves for the final playoff spot. The Mets begin a three-game series with the Brewers in Milwaukee with Sean Manaea on the mound, while the Braves host the Royals and the D-Backs host the Padres.

Before breaking it down, let’s do the fun part of looking at the tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head. The Mets hold the tiebreaker with the Padres (5-2) and D-Backs (4-3). The Braves hold the tiebreaker over the D-Backs (5-2) and currently have the tiebreaker (6-5 over the Mets). The Padres and D-Backs season series is knotted at 5-5. The Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Braves, which is why they’ve clinched a playoff spot.

Three-way ties, which are possible, make things way more complicated. Via MLB dot com:

If the three clubs do not all have identical records against one another (which would be the case in any NL Wild Card ties) and Team X has a better record against Teams Y and Z, then Team X is the qualifier. If Team X and Y have identical records against one another and each has a better record against Team Z, then Teams X and Y follow the two-club tiebreaker rules to determine the qualifier. Otherwise, the three clubs are ranked by their overall winning percentage against one another, and the club with the highest overall winning percentage is the qualifier. If two of the clubs have identical winning percentages in this scenario, then they would follow the two-club tiebreaker procedure.

With that in mind, let’s break down all of the scenarios that would clinch the Mets a 2024 playoff spot with the Mets’ record in parentheses:

Five Mets Wins (92-70)

• This is obviously the clearest one because the Mets hold the tiebreaker with the D-Backs, so if they win out, they’re in no matter what the other teams do. This would make the Mets the second WC team at the very least and could make them the first WC spot if the Padres fail to win more than one game over the weekend.

Four Mets Wins (91-71)

• This also means the Mets are in and are guaranteed at least the second WC. Four wins still puts the first WC spot in play if the Padres lose all three games.

Three Mets Wins With Two Against Braves (90-72)

• This scenario also guarantees the Mets a playoff spot, though their seed depends on the D-Backs/Padres series.

Three Mets Wins With One Against Braves (90-72)

• The first scenario involving the Mets not being guaranteed a playoff spot. The Mets could finish with 90 wins and still not make the playoffs because the Braves would then hold the tiebreaker against them.
• Of course, the Mets would still get in if the D-Backs fail to sweep the Padres.

Three Mets Wins With None Against Braves (90-72)

• This is where things get real dicey for the Mets. The Mets could sweep the Brewers and not need to travel to Atlanta to play, or they could sweep the Brewers and completely miss the playoffs. This is precisely why this weekend’s Royals vs. Braves series and the Padres vs. D-Backs series matter.
• If the D-Backs also sweep the Padres, the Mets would need one win against the Braves on Monday to get in and with no wins, the Padres, Braves and D-Backs get in.

Two Mets Wins With Both Being Against Braves (89-73)

• Yup, the Mets could get swept by the Brewers this weekend and still get in. Beating the Braves in both games would guarantee that New York and Atlanta teams are capped at 89 wins, with the Mets holding the tiebreaker.

All Other Scenarios

• The Mets winning only two games with none coming against the Braves is where things get really dependent on the series played this weekend.
• The Mets could actually still make the playoffs if they win only one of their remaining games. They would, of course, need the D-Backs to lose out or the Braves to go 1-4.
• Zero wins — as it should — means the Mets’ season is over. That, at worst, would leave the D-Backs and Braves with at least 88 wins and the Mets at 87.

Did you get all that?

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