Wild Card Update: Mets Clinging to Second Spot

The playoff odds at Fangraphs have the Mets with a 77.8 percent chance of getting in, though those don’t take into account the ghosts of seasons past. Despite the loss to the Atlanta Braves in the series opener Tuesday night, the Mets remain in the second Wild Card spot with five games to play. Two wins in Atlanta and New York is in.

But whether the Mets play the Braves Wednesday and/or Thursday is in doubt. The forecast in Atlanta for the scheduled first pitch Wednesday shows a 76 percent chance of thunderstorms. (So if you are confident it will rain, you should be just as sure the Mets will be playing in the postseason. Right?)  The forecast only gets uglier from there, with heavy rains expected from Tropical Storm Helene, which may strengthen into a hurricane. Metro Atlanta and north Georgia are already under a flood watch until Friday.

MLB has made no announcements on what the plan will be if either or both of the games are washed out. The Braves host the Royals this weekend while the Mets go to Milwaukee. Monday is a scheduled off day before the playoffs are set to start. Could the Mets-Braves play a doubleheader on Monday? Would MLB send the Mets and Braves to a neutral stadium to play Wednesday or Thursday? We wait.

San Diego Padres (91-66, +4.5)

The Padres clinched a playoff spot in style Tuesday night, with a game-ending triple play to beat the Dodgers 4-2 with Shohei Ohtani looming on deck. San Diego could still take the N.L. West division title. They are two games behind L.A.

New York Mets (87-70, +0.5)

The mind races to all of the bad things that have happened in Atlanta in September over the years. Understandable. I just want to drop in a good moment vs. the Braves from September 1999. The Mets had lost seven in a row and were facing Greg Maddux with five games left in the season. (They face Chris Sale Wednesday – pending rain – with five games to go.) The Mets got to Maddux for eight runs and 11 hits. John Olerud hit a grand slam. The Mets would sweep Pittsburgh to finish the season and beat the Reds in a one-game playoff.

Arizona Diamondbacks (87-71, –)

The Diamondbacks missed a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race Tuesday, losing 11-0 to the Giants. Former Met Michael Conforto helped out his old team with a three-run homer. Arizona has lost three straight and finishes the season with one more game against the Giants Wednesday before hosting the Padres for three over the weekend. The Mets hold the playoff tiebreaker over Arizona. Fangraphs playoff odds: 53 percent.

Atlanta Braves (86-71, 0.5)

The Braves, who seem tougher to kill than a horror movie villain, are one game back of the Mets for the second Wild Card and a half-game back of Arizona for the last spot. They hold the playoff tiebreaker over Arizona, and with one more win against the Mets, they would own that tiebreaker as well. Fangraphs playoff odds: 69.2 percent.

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