Series Preview: Twins at Guardians
It’s now or never for Minnesota
The Guardians and Twins will play the final four games of their season series from today through Thursday, with Cleveland holding a 6.5 game lead over Minnesota and a 7 to 2 game lead in the season series.
The Twins are 79-70 with a +34 run differential, seventh in MLB in team wRC+ at 110, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -10.1, 13th in defensive fWAR at -13.7, third in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.76, and eighth in bullpen SIERA at 3.57.
The Guardians are 86-64 with a +81 run differential, 16th in MLB in team wRC+ at 99, 18th in baserunning runs above average at -2, 3rd in defensive fWAR at 15.9, 21st in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.25, and second in bullpen SIERA at 3.37.
It’s funny to me that the Guardians are better than the Twins in defense, bullpen, and baserunning, but the Twins have CLEAR advantages in starting pitching and hitting. Yet, Cleveland has a clear division lead and have dominated the season series. Even one more win by Cleveland would be devastating to the Twins’ lingering hopes to win the Central.
Matchups:
Game One: Pablo Lopez, RHP (3.35 SIERA) vs. Matthew Boyd, LHP (3.52 SIERA), Monday, 6:40PM EST
Game Two: Zebby Matthews, RHP (3.79 SIERA) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP (4.20 SIERA), Tuesday, 6:40PM EST
Game Three: Bailey Ober, RHP (3.69 SIERA) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.57 SIERA), Wednesday, 6:40PM EST
Game Four: Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP (4.57 SIERA) vs. Joey Cantillo, LHP (3.78 SIERA), Thursday, 1:10PM EST
Analysis: I hope the Guardians’ fanbase comes out en force to cheer on the Guardians trying to end the Twins’ division hopes. But, this series will be a battle. The Guardians will need to find a way to score some runs. The Twins will definitely have watched to see how teams like the Rays have kept Guardians’ hitters off-balance (outside pitches, steady diet of offspeed, etc). Interestingly enough, if Cleveland wins two games, they’ll be guaranteed a playoff spot and I’ll be intrigued to see how much they celebrate. The team needs to be locked in on a division win and a #2 seed in my humble opinion, so I hope the playoff berth celebration is a bit more muted.