Once its strength, the Cincinnati Reds pitching has become its undoing

The end is nigh.

Hunter Greene broke out in a big, big way in 2024, and he’ll receive some mid-ballot Cy Young Award appreciation for it at season’s end. He also hit the shelf after his start on August 13th, and while the initial prognosis is that his surgically repaired right elbow is structurally just fine, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see him pitch for the Reds again as 2024 fades into the record books.

Having Hunter around would be insanely nice these days. What’s left of the rotation without him has turned from an absolute strength of the roster to its downfall, as the 63-68 Reds sit 7.5 games back from the final Wild Card spot, listless on the mound at most times.

The rotation, I should point out, didn’t just lose Hunter. It shed Frankie Montas on purpose at the trade deadline, and he’s promptly pitched to a 3.33 ERA and 3.17 FIP for the rival Milwaukee Brewers across 5 starts. Andrew Abbott landed on the injured list alongside Greene, too, his left shoulder barking after being asked to continue pitching in a game that featured a rain delay. Graham Ashcraft is on the 60-day IL already, while Brandon Williamson has remained hurt all year.

As a result, the bullpen has been forced to become the rotation. Nick Martinez, a swingman by trade, has seemingly carried the load every other blink, and he started yesterday (and fired 3.0 IP) on just 3 days rest after starting earlier in the week. Buck Farmer started a game in a designed bullpen game in Pittsburgh, and the churn towards the woodchipper has forced the Reds to scramble at the back-end of their roster despite leverage suggesting they look elsewhere.

Alan Busenitz got called up, got shelled in a loss, and got designated for assignment. Brooks Kriskie - who Baltimore eventually claimed - lost his roster spot to help enable the scramble. All told, the pitching staff whose 13.0 fWAR prior to August 1st was the 5th best in all of baseball has seen their work go completely up in smoke since.

Their starters’ ERA in the month of August: 5.51, which is 3rd worst in all of baseball. The 4.83 ERA maintained by the entirety of the staff in that time ranks 6th worst, though I fear the taxing nature of how the bullpen has been used as patchwork starters will inevitably drag that down by month’s end rather than boost it up.

I need not point out that after the upcoming 3-game set against Oakland the Reds run into a juggernaut of offenses for most of the rest of the season. Milwaukee, Houston, and the New York Mets follow the A’s, and each ranks among the top 11 teams in the game in both collective wRC+ and wOBA. They’ve also got a series against the Twins (5th) as well as one each against Atlanta and Cleveland and, well, let’s just say the optimism I have for a miraculous turnaround from their staff isn’t exactly burgeoning.

The thought at one point this year was that the Reds had too much pitching. Martinez wasn’t even going to be used as a starter, while Williamson was supposed to join a rip-roarin’ AAA rotation that would also feature Top 100 prospect Connor Phillips and flamethrower Lyon Richardson. Now, we’re facing a reality that the Reds once promising crop of starters could end the season with Montas traded, Greene, Abbott, Ashcraft, and Williamson all hurt, Nick Lodolo and Carson Spiers falling completely apart, Phillips lost amid the pitching yips, Richardson exposed, and Martinez - who has a player option - opting out.

It’s enough to make an offseason cash-toss at Corbin Burnes seem warranted, if absolutely inconceivable.

Thank god for Julian Aguiar, amirite?