Guardian series preview: A huge divisional battle

Is this the biggest series in club history since 2015?

The American League Central Division race has tightened in recent weeks and it could be radically reshaped this week as the Royals take on the Guardians for four games head-to-head, with the Royals trailing by three games in the standings.

Kansas City Royals (72-58) vs. Cleveland Guardians (75-55) at Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Royals: 4.85 runs scored/game (8th in MLB), 4.11 runs allowed/game (8th)

Guardians: 4.56 runs scored/game (13th), 3.97 runs allowed/game (4th)

The race has tightened because the Guardians have been in a slide, dropping six of their last nine games. The offense has gone into a slump, averaging fewer than four runs a game since the All-Star break, and their wRC+ is fifth-worst in baseball in that time. They appreciate home cooking with the best home record in baseball at 40-21.

Guardians hitters have an average walk rate and have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate. They are hitting just .237 as a team and have the second-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball. Outfielder Lane Thomas has been a huge disappointment since the Guardians acquired him from the Nationals at the deadline, hitting just .132/.211/.191 in 22 games. All-Star David Fry has cooled down considerably, hitting just .172/.243/.438 in his last 21 games.

Rookie Jhonkensy Noel has hit eight home runs since the All-Star break. José Ramírez is tenth among all position players with 4.8 fWAR and is a career .280/.361/.521 hitter against the Royals in 158 games. He is the first player in club history with two 30/30 seasons. The Guardians have made 45 outs on the bases, fourth-most in baseball. If Andrés Giménez gets six more steals, it will be the third time in club history the Guardians have three 30+ stolen base players (1917, 1987).

The Guardians and Royals will play a doubleheader on Monday to make up for the postponed game from June 5. Reliever Nick Sandlin will serve as an opener for the Guardians with left-hander Joey Cantillo expected to pitch the bulk innings. Cantillo has an 8.47 ERA in four starts with the Guardians and a 4.15 ERA in ten games at Triple-A. He relies heavily on his 92 mph fastball, and mixes in a change up, curve, and slider.

Logan Allen spent the first half in the Guardians rotation, but struggled and has spent August shuttling between Triple-A and the big leagues. He will be called up to make this start, but he has the sixth-highest ERA of any pitcher with at least 90 innings pitched. He gave up three runs in less than five innings in a loss to the Royals back on June 30. Righties have mashed him, hitting .297/.366/.551.

Gavin Williams missed most of the first half of the season with an elbow injury, and has had mixed results since returning. He has given up 15 runs in 18 ¹⁄₃ innings in his four starts this month. His 97 mph fastball is among the fastest in baseball for starters, but opponents are hitting .304 against it. He also features a curve, cutter, slider, and change up. Last year he held the Royals to just three runs in three starts for a 1.62 ERA.

Tanner Bibee has been the best Cleveland starter for an uncharacteristically poor rotation. He has the 9th-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among starters and has a 2.45 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. His 44.5 percent flyball rate is 12th-highest in baseball, but he has one of the lower home run rates. He has one of the best sliders in baseball with a 34.8 percent whiff rate. He gave up three runs - two earned - in five innings in a loss to the Royals on June 6.

The Guardians have had the best bullpen in baseball all season, with a team ERA of 2.71 and the second-best strikeout rate and an opponents’ batting average of .198. Emmanuel Clase is second in baseball with 38 saves in 41 opportunities, and he hasn’t given up a run in his last 16 outings. Former Royals reliever Scott Barlow has struggled in August with a 9.45 ERA in nine games this month. Cade Smith has the fourth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among relievers. Lefties are hitting just .096/.185/.123 against Tim Herrin.

The Royals have struggled against winning teams this year, but have taken four of six from the Guardians this year. The Royals have gone 26-13 against Central Division foes, while the Guardians have gone just 21-17. The two teams will play each other seven times in the next ten days, which will have a huge impact on how this division plays out.